Isolating with the Gigabet Dilemma (long)

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
From a standard pot odds view, at the micro level, debating the call with QJ is a waste of time. Mathematically you have to call and there is no point arguing that point any further.

But, if you look at this from a tournament perspective, is a fold not the right play? Is it not better to yield a long term +ev play in the short-term of a final table?

I believe the answer is yes for the following reasons:

Since the call is automatic, the villain in the hand has to know this as well. The villain raises all-in and guarantees your call. Therefore, I think we can narrow the range and credit the villain accordingly. I think we can then state that the holding of QJ is now very likely behind.

Hero’s percentage of superiority to rest of the table factors into the decision. You are better than X numbers of players (in skill and chip stack or both ), present and if soon increasing blinds and antes, total table chip stack considerations etc., all of the above listed variables are entered into the equation as well as any other variables-6 players left and needing at least 5th place money to get unstuck etc. ).

The math that was requiring a call, now finds a fold resulting in yielding a long term +ev play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, this logic is absurd.

1) Villain won't always re-steal with the top 23% of hands, and will sometimes call

2) Gigabet is not calling because he might be ahead. He is calling even though he is quite sure he is behind, but he is getting the right price. We've already narrowed down Villain's range.

By the way, and this is important, the fact that Villain knows Gigabet must call does not make him calling incorrect. If you had 90% of your stack in the middle with KK, and your opponent pushes the last 10% with AA and flips his cards over, is it correct for you to fold?

3) The big blind is also in the picture.

So you are basically telling Gigabet that raising the blinds with QJ at a final table, when blinds are huge, is a -EV play because the small blind might have a top 23% hand and will push with it.

Do you realize how freaking absurd that sounds?

Find me one player that's made a WPT final table that thinks QJ is too weak to open-raise with. Just one.