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Old 08-27-2006, 12:14 PM
gulon gulon is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 264
Default ($11) Push AQo against 3x raise?

BB was very tight and did not defend blinds. CO was TAG, not much else of a read on him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1600)
Button (t1330)
Hero (t1813)
BB (t1950)
UTG (t1900)
MP (t4907)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Hero...

I folded this in the game. On review, I wondering this could have been a PUSH?

Assuming that BB folded, if CO was stealing then his calling range would be tight and my FE + win% would be high.

If CO raised with a smaller range TT+/AQ+ then I have no FE and his call% and my lose% would be higher.

Since my read was that he was TAG I folded. However, at 75/150 everybody is also motivated to steal blinds. Am I giving him too much credit for good cards here? Mitigating between a tight player's tendancies and their motivation to steal is a tough one that affects EV significantly.
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