The Poker Tournament Formula by Arnold Snyder...

[Arnold_Snyder]

First, regarding Radar: I would like to thank both WhiskeyR and Cactus Jack for defending Radar’s right to anonymity, though if you knew Radar, you would know that Radar rarely needs any help with defense, offense, or any other kind of ’fense. Radar never posted anything here but arguments with regards to the ideas and contents of my book, and statements that Mason and others here made about those contents. Anyway, woe be to anyone who ever insinuates that Radar is some kind of appendage to (or shill for) me. Radar was a professional gambler when we met, is mentioned in most of my books as my playing partner, has developed some of the most powerful professional gambling techniques for blackjack ever devised, and currently is working (independent of me) with a number of high stakes pros in ways that have never, and may never, be published. I suspect that Radar makes more money per month from gambling than most anyone who posts here makes in a year (possibly barring Men the Master). Also, the total amount I have ever made from book royalties per year is well below Radar’s monthly gambling income, so the insinuation made by some poster here that Radar may be influenced by financial considerations from my book is truly ludicrous. In fact, Radar has begged me numerous times to stop publishing valuable gambling secrets and just use them to make money. I have already begun to regret having written this book, as I have come to learn that although the fast play methods I describe are necessary strategies for beating fast tournaments, they are also very advantageous in long slow events. So, this may be my last book.

Regarding PTF: Mason said he agreed with my statement that some tournaments were too fast to offer much profit opportunity to skillful players. Many tournament players are aware of this, and some eventually figure out more or less which tourneys to avoid and which ones to play. But the methods players use to figure out a tournament’s potential value are very imprecise, and most players can’t really tell from looking at the starting chips and blind structure how fast a tournament will be; they actually have to play it a few times before they get much of a handle on it. Even experienced tournament players have no way to judge a tournament’s speed just by looking at the structure. Despite the fact that tournaments have been with us for decades, I’ve never seen a method for quantifying any specific tournament’s speed. And many poker rooms take advantage of tournament players’ ignorance by offering tournaments with terrible formats that are really just designed to finish quickly so the poker room dealers can get back to dealing the raked games where the house makes its money.

Case in point: The 2006 WSOP. Just about every day, the Rio offered two “2nd Chance” tourneys, one at 5pm and another at 11pm. The buy-in for the 5pm tourney was $540. The 11pm tourney was $230. For those prices, these were far and away the worst tournaments in Las Vegas as far as structure and speed are concerned. There are $540 tournaments offered every day of the week at various poker rooms throughout Las Vegas. The Bellagio has them five days a week, Sunday-Thursday at 2pm. Mirage and Venetian offer them on Friday and Saturday afternoon. Wynn’s is on Friday only. So, essentially, there is a Las Vegas tournament at this same price every day of the week, with three on Friday and two on Saturday.

In the PTF, I explain a very simple and logical method of estimating a tournament’s speed based on its structure. It calculates a number I call a “patience factor,” and the higher this number, the longer and slower the tournament will be. Here are the patience factors of these $540 tourneys:

Venetian: 13.56
Wynn: 10.42
Mirage: 10.07
Bellagio: 9.00
WSOP: 5.69

I consider any tournament with a patience factor of 10 or above to rate as “Skill Level 6.” The Bellagio tourney, with a patience factor of 9.00, rates as Skill level 5, still a high skill event. But that WSOP tournament with a patience factor of only 5.69, is categorized as Skill Level 3. I can find tournaments in Las Vegas with Skill Levels higher than this every day of the week in the $60 to $150 price range. Yet, Rio was putting a professional price point on what is clearly a rank amateur tournament. Furthermore, I saw many players that I recognized as skilled players entering this awful tournament.

Even worse, was the Rio’s 11pm $230 tourney. The structure of this tournament gave it a patience factor of 2.53, or Skill Level 1. In PTF, I advise even those players who master fast play to avoid tournaments this lightening fast. There are lots of Skill Level 1 tournaments available in Las Vegas—but not for $230! You’ll find them at Aladdin ($60), Bally’s ($60), Cannery ($25), Flamingo ($60), Imperial Palace ($80), MGM Grand ($65), Monte Carlo ($40), and a whole bunch of other casino poker rooms (Paris, Plaza, Sam’s Town, Stardust, Stratosphere, Treasure Island, Tuscany, and others), all with buy-ins under $100. I wouldn’t waste my time in any of these tournaments, even at these bargain-priced buy-ins. You can find Skill Level 4 tournaments at Caesars every day of the week for $130, and Orleans has a number of Skill Level 3 and 4 tourneys throughout the week priced under $100. But Rio puts a $230 buy-in/entry on a Skill Level 1 tourney, a total crapshoot, and because it was being offered at the WSOP, they attracted hundreds of players, including many smart and experienced players, every night.

The Internet tournament scene is even worse than the live tournament scene as far as price having anything to do with value. Online, you can find many Skill Level 6 tournaments in the $10-$30 price range (Bodog, Absolute Poker, Full Tilt), and also tournaments priced as high as $530 that are only Skill Level 4 (Poker Stars).

Most tournament players think that the higher the price, the more “professional” the event. Or they think that the number of starting chips is the criterion to use, never even looking at the blind structure. Tournament players need to get a handle on tournament speed in order to choose the events they play wisely, based on their own skill and bankroll. I really do believe that my book is the first to address this problem in depth, and provide tournament players with an easy and logical method of rating tournaments by speed and Skill Level.

In any case, I do hope that some of you may benefit from my book. The position strategy is kick-ass, and if you follow my advice and play a few tournaments in the dark, you will discover this for yourself. The rebuy chapter really is the only accurate analysis of rebuy theory and logic that has ever appeared in print. Harrington ignores rebuy strategies. And Sklansky got it wrong. No one else has ever really done the math. If you play in live tourneys, you’ll find the chapter on player types invaluable. You will see these characters at your tables over and over. Don’t ignore the effect field size has on a fast tournament when it comes to crunch time, and make sure you understand that crunch time is really where you determine your finishing position, well before the final table. And pay particular attention to the chapter (and appendix material) on bankroll requirements. This is something that every other poker author has ignored when it comes to tournament players.

I’ll be out of town for a few days and will not have Internet access. After that, if you have any questions, feel free to email me at [email protected]. And I hang out a lot at my own website, www.pokertournamentformula.com, where you may also feel free to post questions. I’ve really appreciated all the discussion here, and would like to thank Mason once more for inviting me to participate (even though I’m still not sure he gets it).