Paradise 1/2 -- Should I play this slower?

[SixForty]

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Woah woah woah. Am I to understand that you think if Villain has played 88 (or even J9) this way, he's "incompetent"?

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No - not incompetent. But what I was saying is that if I know that someone will cap every street with the 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th nuts, then I can open up my capping range to include more hands as well. It's just like playing a maniac who will cap with A-high lots of times. I'll cap him heads up with two pair on a board that has a 3flush and a 3straight.

All I said was that the better I can weight an oppoenents hand range, the better decisions I can make against that opponent.

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I think a player who just called down the turn with 88 is a bit weak, honestly. Sure, with 88 I just call the river 3-bet, but I'm not slowing down on the flop or the turn.

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Meh - if I am Villain here, and I cap the flop and turn and still get bet into on the river, I don't even raise it. Unless I know the guy betting into me is prone to betting into me quite light here.

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If you are 90% sure he has 99, then 3-betting the river is a bad play.

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I suppose this is true assuming that the other 10% will not cap. If they will, however, then 3-betting isn't a bad play. Big assumption, I guess.

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Even if it does get capped by the Villain all the time, whether he's holding 99 or 88 (or even worse) it's still -EV. If we know Villain is going to have 99 here 90% of the time, then 90% of the time we get capped and lose two bets (net -1.8 bets) and 10% of the time we get capped and win two bets (net +0.2 bets) So 3betting has an average EV of -1.6 bets. I'd say that's a bad play!