Blackjack Strategy

[MicroBob]

Someone correct me if I'm doing this wrong:


If you played at a casino with no max-bet and started at $5 and always doubled your bet after each loss:

It would take 15 straight losses to drop $81.9k in a single hand.
and you will have also lost $81.9k in the 14 previous bets to get to this point already for a total of almost $163k lost.

The odds of losing 15 straight hands of blackjack is about 1:25k.

This is assuming about 51% chance of losing the hand (42% win, 9% push) which actually starts to really add-up compared with a 50/50 chance.

At 100 hands an hour (which would be really slow if you were playing the dealer heads-up) you should expect to see such a streak once every 250 hours I believe.

So if you played 40 hours a week doing this martingale system (base of $5 and doubling after each loss) then you should expect to have a 15-hand stretch where you drop $163k-ish 1 time every 6 weeks or so.


Chances of dropping $163k in a 15 hand stretch is significantly less than chances of getting dealt a pocket-pair 4 hands in a row.


If you got to that point and still wanted to keep going it would only take 3 more losses to reach 1.3-million in total losses.
This is about 1:200k which is less than your chances of flopping a royal.