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Old 07-23-2006, 03:03 PM
CORed CORed is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Progressions 101

There have been many betting systems developed that can classified as progressions. I will define a progresion as any system in which you change the amount bet based on the result of prior bets. Progressions do not alter the house edge. This is an indisputable mathematical fact. The simplest way to explain this is that you can not add up a bunch of negative numbers to make a positive number. Progressions do, however effect the short-term distribution of results.
Progressions can generally divided into two types: Negative progressions, in which you increase your bet after a loss, in an attempt to recover all or part of your losees, and positive progressions, or parlays, in which you increase your bet after a win, in an attempt to capitalize on a winnig streak by levraging your winnings.

Negative progressions, of which the Martingale is the most extreme, trade a high probability of a small win for a low probability of a big loss.

Positive progressions trade a low probability of a big win for a high probability of a small loss.

The steeper the progression, the more these effects are exaggerated.

If you're looking for the thrill of possibly making a big score, a positive progression on a low house edge game like blackjack isn't a bad way to go. Most casino games with big payouts have considerably higher house edges than the "even money" games like blackjack and craps. You can manufacture a big jackpot from the low house advantage games by parlaying your winnings. You have to accept , though, that most of the time you're going to lose you buyin, as most of your progressions will end in a loss before you have amassed enough wins to be in the black.
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