Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise

[allenciox]

I disagree that this is a textbook stop-n-go situation. Remember this guy has not played a hand in 2 orbits (20 hands). He is in third position, still fairly early. Any individual player has a 2.4% chance of having an overpair to us. The range originally given is the top 8% of hands. If that range is reasonable (and I think it is for a tight player) then there is a 30% chance that they have an overpair to our 99. This hardly qualifies as "pretty sure" that I have the best hand now. We are a dog to their range.

The problem with a stop-n-go as opposed to a push is that the other player has more information to go on to decide whether to call our bet. It does decrease our variance, but at the expense of our expected value.