Allin every time right?

[notevenhere]

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I can probably construct a set of hands that results in your AA drawing DEAD vs 12 opponents.

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LOL, do it.

notevenhere,

You are right in saying that if AA and 12 other hands went to the felt pf, we would be a dog. We would also be a hugely +EV dog. Stop worrying about winning pots and start worrying about winning money.

Also, if we call instead of push here, we are definitely not giving villains odds to hit a set.

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Button is getting correct implied odds to hit his set.

There is $26.15 in the pot before button calls. Hero has $14.50 to go. Add that up, and we have $40.65. Add that to the $14.60 from UTG+1, and we have $55.25. Better than 10-1 implied odds to call.


You speak as if winning money and pots have no correlation at all.

Button being in the hand decreases our chances of winning every time. This is plain indisputable fact. Button being in the hand also increases the size of the pot. So in order to want the button in this pot, the increased amount of money he puts in must justify the decrease in Hero's chances to win.

If your argument is that the decrease in winning % is offset by the extra money put into the pot by button, this is a valid argument. I would not happen to agree, but I can see the merits. However, making a flippant statement like:

"Stop worrying about winning pots and start worrying about winning money."

is just ignoring the issue altogether, which is not in any way instructive.

Pokerstove puts AA vs any random hand at ~85% chance to win. It puts AA vs any 2 random hands at ~70% chance to win. Now I know we are not up against random hands here. We're up against some fairly defined hands. Say, for instance, we are up against KK and QQ. Against a single one of those hands, we are 82% to win. Playing vs both, we are 67% to win. Same 15% difference. Obviously, the news is much better if we are up against at least one AK. But for sake or argument, allow for the 15% to be used here.

By pushing the button away, you gain an extra 15% equity. To put it another way, the number of times you lose this hand is reduced by HALF.

Now, I personally doubt that an all-in pre-flop by the Hero in this situation pushes either player out. By the looks of the hand, all 3 are going to the felt.

To say that forcing the button to fold is a bad idea in absolute terms, that is simply incorrect. Our FE in this situation vs button, however tiny it is, is EV+ imo.

But say you don't believe that argument. Why is calling better? Doesn't calling give Button-Villain who is holding KK a reason to bail when an A falls on the flop? Doesn't a King calling make his hand? Why do you want to make any kind of post flop decision in this hand?