The Freakonomics of Tournaments: A Preview (74s UTG at final table)

[jafeather]

I'm getting off on this thread...and it kind of proves Nath's original point.

Nath's whole point in this thread (and in most of his PF "move hard" threads) is finding +EV in situations that most automatically disregard as -EV or, at best, break-even.

The fact that this thread has sparked huge debate, many agreeing and many more disagreeing, to his line is exactly the point.

Building a huge chip stack doesn't come easy, or by avoiding risks. When you have an enormous stack not only do you have to call down the short stack with hands like 74s once in a while, but you also have to put SS in a position where he has to call you when you hold 74s.

You cannot weigh this play on this move alone. The fact that Nath is willing to raise with many hands, call with many hands, call against reraises and re-reraise many reraises is what adds the twist here.

Sure, this play may be -EV if you figure the math in detail. Frankly, though, you CANNOT EVER figure the math in detail while in actual play. Against a horrificly LAGgy player like Nath you not only CANNOT figure the math in detail, but you also have a near impossible task measuring it even loosely. This is where Nath's frightening strategy comes into play. You have no idea where he raises. You have no idea where he calls. You can't re-raise him, because he's definitely calling. You can't push, because he will call. You have no idea where you stand when he pushes, because it could be with anything. His style play is the ultimate smokescreen.

Sure...this particular play may be-EV, and may be very -EV. If that's what you're seeing, you're missing the point. The point is he'll rarely make this move WAY -EV. When you're playing in such a way that your opponent never knows what you hold, you induce mistakes....even when you have a weak holding. That turns break-even or slightly -EV situations like the 74s example into HUGE +EV long-runs, based on the mistakes you create alone.

I don't fully understand the concepts of Nath's play either. But he's extraordinarily successful with it. If it's a good run, it's a hell of a long one. Try to look at his posts as a glimpse into a uniquely successful player's mind, instead of tearing it down like a common one.