Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?

[VBCurtis]

I'm looking to take a shot at a bigger game than my local 4/8 and 6/12 games, which I beat reasonably well ($8-10/hr over 150 hours). I've sweated the Commerce 9, and it feels beatable-- I can identify mistakes players are making, and most of the time can locate a seat at the table I'd feel like a favorite in.
Where would you take a first shot at a bigger game? I'm spending most of next week in Vegas, and have all summer to grow the balls for Commerce 9 if I don't play higher than 6/12 in Vegas next week.
Perhaps I'm asking the wrong question-- do you take shots when you run hot and feel on top of your game? Rather than obsessing over where, should I just wait until I run good and move up wherever I'm playing that day?
-curtis