SSNL Study Session #2 Topic: Don't Justify Their Optimistic Calls

[DawnToDusk]

Don’t Justify Their Optimistic Calls

Two weeks ago we discussed the topic of implied odds from NL:TP (page 33-39). The first topic we will be discussing this week directly relates to the discussion we had last week and is a crucial concept for successful deep stack NL play. If you need to you can review the implied odds topic by following this link: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0#Post6201635.

Pages 40-44 of NL:TP talk about justifying our opponents optimistic calls. Essentially we will be discussing whether to pay off big bets or fold to a big bet. There is no actual definition for this topic but here is an example:

Suppose you hold a good hand but one that might not stand up well against big bets. After looking at the flop you come to the conclusion that the flop texture is good and the only real draws are to a gutshot. You make a pot sized bet denying your opponents the correct pot odds to draw to the gutshot but realize that the bet was equivalent to one-thirteenth of your stack. You didn’t refuse them high implied odds for the gutshot and get a call from your opponent who assumes they will get their one-eleventh of the time and stack you. If your opponent is right and does stack you when they hit their gutshot, then in addition to offering to high implied odds, you have made the error of justifying their optimistic call.

In the example above we noted that we had a good hand but one that might not stand up well against big bets. Unfortunately we paid off big bets with it and lost. Whenever we are involved in a hand we must be asking ourselves if we want to pay off big bets with the hand we currently hold. The answer may change later in the hand, but nonetheless we must keep this thought in the back of our head.

If we came to the conclusion that we are willing to pay off big bets with our hand we should try to avoid offering our opponents to high of implied odds. Bet enough money so that your opponent’s likely draws will lose money over the long run if they call. Even if you pay them off with a big bet when they get there from time to time. If you aren’t planning to pay off a big bet then consider your opponents draws and what bets they will likely call that is unprofitable for them to do so. Bet an amount that looks small but you know is too much for them to call as you won’t go broke with your hand.

This concept doesn’t exactly apply when we are short stacked though. If you are likely to get your money in when you are short stacked and your opponent calls a bet assuming they can get your stack, then they are right. But we must be careful to avoid doing this when much deeper stacked.

I would like to further our discussion by having you ask any questions concerning this topic and the topic of implied odds. We might be beating the implied odds topic to death, but it is such a crucial topic to successful NL deepstack play and I want to ensure everyone at this level has a firm understanding of it. If you do have a question about implied odds try to tie it into our discussion of justifying optimistic calls.

I would also like to ask you what hands can stand up to big bets (hands we might consider paying off with) in certain situations. I bet we can all come up with some generalizations about all the hold ‘em starting hands, but many of us probably can’t tell when a hand may be worth paying off with and when it might not. If you have any hands you are having trouble playing with when it looks like you may be paying off, please let us know the situation you are in. As a group maybe we can come to some conclusions about these situations and advance our game to the next level together.