Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games...

[Ed Miller]

I have a secret. I know why most of you aren't crushing these Microlimit games. It isn't because you guys aren't smart, because you are. It isn't because you don't put the effort in to study, because you do. It isn't because your opponents play well, because they don't.

It's because you fold too damn much.

Most low-limit books contain advice that looks like this:

"Fit or fold."
"If you don't have the best hand or the best draw, fold."
"If you have bottom or middle pair, fold."
"If you have a pocket pair and don't hit your set on the flop, fold."
"If you have top pair, but don't like your kicker, fold."
"If you have a straight draw, but there are two of a suit on board, fold."
"If you have a flush draw, but the board is paired, fold."

This advice is terrible. In fact, I can prove that this advice is terrible right now. You are playing 1-2, and FishyPoker.com has decided to run a promotion. They are going to add $10 million to this one pot. How should you play? Well, however you play, you sure as hell shouldn't fold. Any dumbass who folds in a $10 million pot for a $2 bet is a moron.

Now you may say, "well, this is an extreme case," and it is. But the problem with the advice is that it IGNORES THE SIZE OF THE POT, which happens to be the single most important factor in any decision you make at the poker table. Every time you make any decision... whether it be betting or check-raising the flop or calling on the river, you need to be saying to yourself, "how big is the pot?" If you aren't, then you are playing poor poker.

In the past few weeks, I have seen approximately two zillion posts from players that folded top pair or an overpair in a big pot for just one bet. This is on the flop, on the turn, and on the river.

"I thought someone had to have me beat."
"I didn't like my kicker."
"I didn't want to be dominated."
"With all those players in, someone had to have a flush draw."

When the pot is big (and big essentially means as little as that there was a preflop raise) you need to focus on winning the pot. Big pots are the time to play aggressively and maximize your chance to win, not to save bets. Folding is saving bets. You should NOT be looking to fold in big pots... you should be constantly thinking about how you are going to win it, even if you don't have the best hand sometimes.

There was a post just this morning where someone limped in with A3s on the button after two limpers. The big blind raise behind and everyone called. The flop was AQ2, and the action went BB bet, one limper called, and it was your action. You have top frickin pair in a big (i.e. raised) pot, and it is one bet to you. The BB's bet shows no more strength than what he showed when he raised before the flop. He could easily have KQ or TT or 76s. The limper called... that means he has.. well, two cards. You are getting 11-1 on a call, and did I mention that you have top frickin pair?

And yet half (or more) of the advice told him to fold. TERRIBLE! Horrible, terrible, wretched poker advice. The pot is big, you have a good hand, no one has shown any real strength, and you are gonna bail? Absurd. Yes, sometimes the raiser will have AQ and you'll lose a couple of bets. But the pot is already way bigger than a "couple of bets." And when you have the raiser beaten, he's gonna be the one losing a couple of bets to you when he pays YOU off with his KK or whatever.

WHEN THE POT IS BIG DO NOT FOLD DECENT HANDS FOR ONE BET! Just stop doing it.

You know those guys that play "fearless" poker and seem to win? When the pot is big, it is time to play fearless. Throw in that extra bet or raise. If you crash and burn, so be it. That is winning poker, though. If you don't have the stomach for it, take up tiddle-e-winks.

The time to save bets is when the pot is small. Make your prudent folds in the four-ways for one bet pots.

For the love of god, think about this and reevaluate your game, guys. If I folded as much as you guys do, I'd be flat broke right now.

Ok. Every one of you now officially owes me a beer next time you come to Vegas. Don't think I'm not gonna collect, either...