Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games...

[MrWookie]

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Why should you continue when the pot is big but fold when it is small? 8-to-1 is 8-to-1, after all. The reason is that later bets are smaller in proportion to the pot when it is big than when it is small. Calling down with a marginal made hand is cheaper when the pot contains 16 small bets and it is 2 small bets to you than when it contains only 8 small bets and it is 1 small bet to you.

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Could be missing something here - but isn't 16:2 the same as 8:1 ??

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Yes, but he's talking about the bets on the later streets as well. Say you're getting 16-2 and you call, everyone else folds. Now 18 sb in the pot, or 9 bb on the turn. When you are bet into on the turn, you are now getting 10-1 on your call. But in an 8 sb pot, you call one, now there are 9 sb in the pot, or 4.5 BB on the turn. So when you call on the turn, now you are only getting 5.5-1. In theory, it has now become more expensive for you to call due to the fact that the pot is small.

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I don't remember seeing this earlier, but I actually disagree with this pretty adamently. The main area where people get this post horribly wrong is that they forgot how the pot was made big. It's not like Party just magically threw 16 SB into the pot as part of some promotion and also happened to make the two bets facing you the result of altering their softare to make the first bet on the flop double sized. No, a 16 SB pot with 2 bets to you is the product of not only a lot of callers, but also bettors and raisers. And the more betting and raising there is, the more marginal anything that's not the nuts starts looking.

The fact of the matter is, top pair with a medium kicker starts to look like a marginal, but decent hand facing one bet, but it starts looking pretty bad facing two, even in a large pot. It's even in SSH. NPA himself says that you should be much more inclined to fold getting 16:2 than getting 8:1 because the probability that you're beaten when facing two people who like their hands, one of whom really likes his hand, is much, much greater than beating out one guy who likes his hand. This is the same idea as being hesitant to overcall, but magnified even more.

Edit: This is different if you have a draw instead of a made hand. You should be more inclined to cold call on the flop with a weakish draw to the nuts getting 16:2 than you should with a marginal made hand that may or may not be best getting 16:2. With a draw in a big pot, your draw will be priced better on the big streets AND you're more likely to get paid off by people calling and hoping in the big pot. With a marginal made hand that doesn't have many outs, say, KK on an Axx flop facing 16:2, you're more likely to be at a strong disadvantage and burning money en route to the river.