6-max blind defense

[deception5]

Cross posted in hush, thought you folks might find this interesting.

Was crunching some numbers in PokerStove and thought I'd share my results.

Let's assume an opponent on the button who will raise according to MEbenhoe's starting hands chart. This comes to about 34.5% of starting hands from the button and looks like:

22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A2o+,K9o+ ,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

How do we determine which hands should be reraised and which we should call with (or fold?). We're getting 1:3.5 immediate odds, but realistically some hands we should just fold right now (as they will cost too much if we catch a piece of the flop and we will have to check/fold very often).

If we assume we'd only like to play hands that are at least 40% to win (the same % argument used when talking about folding AQ to a tight UTG raise in higher stakes), that means we should be playing the following hands:

22+ (22 has 45% equity)

A2s+ (47%+ equity)
K2s+ (40.5%+ equity)
Q7s+ (40%+ equity)
J8s+ (40%+ equity)
T9s has 41% equity

A2o+ (44%+ equity)
K8o+ (40.5%+ equity)
Q9o+ (40.5%+ equity)
JTo has 41.5% equity

Interestingly, this results in exactly 34.5% of hands (the same number the button is raising with, but a slightly different set of hands (more suited kings, fewer little suited connectors). Running these two ranges against each other in pokerstove showed the button with 49.85% equity and the BB with 50.15%. With the positional disadvantage, button is still probably a slight favorite.

If we assume we'd also like to reraise if we are likely a favorite by 10% or more (55%+ equity), that means we should be reraising these hands:

AA - 85%
KK - 76.5%
QQ - 73%
JJ - 69%
TT - 65.5%
99 - 61%
88 - 57.5%
77 - 55%

AKs - 65%
AQs - 63%
AJs - 61%
ATs - 59%
A9s - 55.7%

AKo - 63.5%
AQo - 61.5%
AJo - 59%
ATo - 57%

If we want to add in hands which are only 5% favorites, we can put in:

66 - 53.5%
A8s - 53%
A9o - 53%
KQs - 52.6%

Interestingly, big kings do not fare well against the button's range and mostly should not be reraised (from an equity standpoint).

Of course all of this is assuming no reads and that you and your opponent play equally well postflop which of course is not usually the case.

Let me know if you have any comments or corrections (or if this has already been done to death )!

Thanks,
D5