Conjecture and Question

[AtticusFinch]

By the way, the easiest way to see that cEV does not equal $EV, even in a winner-take-all tourney, is to look at an extreme example. Let's say you're in a 100-person tourney, winner-take-all. Your skill is such that you have a 2% chance of winning (Twice the odds of an average player.)

On the first hand you're offered a 100-way allin, where you have precisely a 1.5% chance of winning. Furthermore, the other players won't take the bet unless you come along. Clearly this is a highly +cEV opportunity. It's even a +$EV play (meaning you'll profit over time from your buyin). However, based on your skill expectation, you should decline, as its $EV is 25% less than the $EV you'd get from playing. (This ignores hourly rate, of course, but you get the idea.)