The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
I did misread the hand. But even in this situation, AA is a fold. Let's say for the sake of argument that gwilkx and pechorin are 30th and 29th in chips. If you lose an 80-20 proposition here, you have less than 30k and have barely more than 29th and 30th, and you have to post the BB before Pechorin. So you have put yourself in a spot to lose a definite seat on an 80-20 race.

I'm assuming Prime Time is around 16th or so with his stack. FOURTEEN players would need to double up, or steal, or something along those lines to make Prime Time worry about his seat. There is MUCH greater than an 80% chance that he can fold his way into a seat.

If in this spot Prime Time was the chipleader, I'd push with AA or KK to play sheriff maybe. But even then I'd probably just be sitting out.

The blinds escalate and force others to push their small stacks into the blinds. This creates opportunites for short stacks to bust. If you are 3rd in chips for example, and a shorty pushes with 5 BB from the CO, and you hold any two cards you can risk a very little to knock out the shorty. But when you might possibly lose 2/5 of your stack or more if you continue with the hand and losing 2/5 of your stack puts you in the bottom 5 in chips, you NEED to fold everything.

In Prime Time's spot he isn't enough of a chipleader to push other big stacks away and he has a hand that is very easily beat. Raising to 8k here is unacceptable IMO. Pushing is horrible, and calling is bad. I hope I've made a decent argument as to why I'd fold AA or KK here as well.



[/ QUOTE ]


Excellent analysis Nez477!
My exact thoughts as I was playing.
Posted this to help others understand proper Sat strategy.

Lets keep this in mind.
If this was a Sunday Super, I would have “busted out” [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]on the hand, cause if my chips are not all-in PF, they are certainly in after the flop.

Any comments on this?

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]

Excellent analysis Nez477!
My exact thoughts as I was playing.
Posted this to help others understand proper Sat strategy.

Lets keep this in mind.
If this was a Sunday Super, I would have “busted out” [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]on the hand, cause if my chips are not all-in PF, they are certainly in after the flop.

Any comments on this?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, in a regular tournament this is busto for me all day every day. For what it's worth, I would have folded AA in your spot (well, I don't know if I would have, but I would like to think I could, because I think it's the right play).

I made the super-tough KTo laydown on that hand, was it the right play? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Edit: I was somehow able to overcome the donk thanatos!

[seke2]

Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?

[Nez477]

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're in MP here Seke. Therefore another bigstack with more chips can call and knock us out. If EP raises and folded to you in the BB, then a push might make more sense if the EP raiser has a small stack. But this situation pushing with AA would be a bad idea.

In general, I never, on a satellite bubble, should be risking all of my chips unless I need to double up to win the seat. In this case pushing with AA means you could be risking all of your chips.

Brad

[seke2]

I wasn't advocating a push, even though my post read that way. I meant to advocate putting shortie all in, risking no more than exactly how many chips the short stack has. If I had AA here, I would probably raise to the exact size of shortie's stack and assume that nobody would raise beyond that, since it would be incredibly stupid of them to do so.

[Jurollo]

Could an argument be made to raise to t12573 here after the limp, and fold to a reraise by a bigger stack? I whole heartedly agree that this is a laydown with JJ, but wouldnt this line cover your butt too?
~Justin

[NHFunkii]

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone demonstrate how mathematically, laying down AA is right there? You've convinced me that this JJ laydown makes sense, but I can't wrap my brain around the math for this to be an AA fold.

Let's say you have a 99% chance of getting a seat if you just post and fold. If you go all in with AA and lose the hand, you still have at least an average number of chips, and could still post/fold enough orbits to have a 95% chance of going in. Just some complete hypotheticals, since we don't know the sizes of the stacks at the other tables in this particular instance.

The 80 (or better)% chance of ending the tournament immediately if AA holds up doesn't make up for the perhaps 5% less chance of winning if AA gets cracked?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're way higher than 99% to win a seat here, there is absolutely no reason to risk chips, period (unless everyone else is sitting out and the shortstacks are colluding as they become shortstacks and when the shortstacks becomes not short they sit out until they're short again) ps that doesn't happen very often

sure if you lose you'll still have a huge chance of getting in, but there's no reason to risk it. Why do you want so badly to end it now?

[seke2]

I'm just trying to understand the fundamental principle here.

For a satallite to actually end, SOMEONE will have to make a call of a short stack's push at some point. I guess basically what you guys are saying that is that:
1) its too many chips to risk here relative to Hero's stack
2) JJ isn't strong enough to be worth the risk

If Villain only had, say, 3000 left, exactly 1 BB, should Hero limp in as well and hope to check it down?

I've been thinking about playing sats recently for an occasional shot at a big money tournament, but apparently I need to work on my sat bubble math first, and just want to understand this better.

[TxDozerMan]

I understand that Hero's position in this situation is a virtual lock, but there are many situations in satellites that are not so clear. Is there any type of formula available to quantify the chance of survival on the bubble of a satellite?

I think knowing that you have a roughly X% chance of folding in would be very valuable at the table. How can we quantify this?

[Nez477]

I might take a shot at this tonight. Maybe.

I think the best way to look at it as follows: How often do two stacks, one short and one large, both get AQ+/99+ in the amount of time it would take to blind hero down. I guess this would be a good starting point.

Without math thought, I am 99% certain that hero can fold his way into a seat being say, 16th out of 30. But the argument can be made that if 1-29 think they can sit out then 30 can steal all he wants. And eventually it just comes down to who posts which blind first. This does not happen though.

As I said before, 14 players would have to somehow find a way to get more chips than the hero without busting. EXTREMELY unlikely.

Brad