More Bonds - Page 18

bowens · #**171** 08-31-2007, 10:24 AM

Are you sure you're ready to get owned like you did in the other Bonds thread DD? Just concerned for your well being. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Dids · #**172** 08-31-2007, 10:45 AM

Developing intense man crush on Red Bean.

pepper123 · #**173** 08-31-2007, 11:00 AM

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A guy breaks a hallowed HR record, after having a power surge after age 35, and it is later revealed in a book that he admitted to using illegal performance enhancing drugs around the same time as his power surge.

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Question(s) for Redbean:

What is the book in which Aaron admitted using illegal performance enhancing drugs, and what drugs did he admit using. and in what sense were they "illegal"?

Thanks.

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If you read the thread you would know the answer to your questions.

Kneel B4 Zod · #**174** 08-31-2007, 11:04 AM

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Developing intense man crush on Red Bean.

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he would make a great lawyer. or maybe he is one already, b/c he's excellent at pointing out particular stats and showing them in particular ways which make Bonds progression look like other greats. and he keeps a level head when people attack him.

(and some of that is similar to what a lot of Bonds haters have done)

however, I think even he would concede that overall no hitter has improved as much with age as Bonds has. Even the guys he points out like Fisk, Sauer, etc, basically didn't show (much) decline in their 30's. Bonds is on a different planet than these guys...he was a historically great hitter up until 35, and then he blew past his previous totals by incredible leaps and bounds. no one that I'm aware of ever came close to doing this.

and it simply doesn't make sense to take walks out of the equation, b/c it is directly related to his ability when he did make contact.

JordanIB · #**175** 08-31-2007, 11:43 AM

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More fun with numbers....

It's been frequently reported by our friends in the sports media, and widely believed by many that "you just don't start hitting homeruns at a higher rate after age 35".

So let's do a little examination.

CRITERIA:
We're going to compare a players At-bats per HR rate over two periods...age 31-34 and age 35-39 and see if it increased or decreased.

---

Palmeiro (proven steroid user)
Age 31-34: 14.5
Age 35-39: 14.9
declined

Canseco(admitted steroid user)
Age 31-34: 13.4
Age 35-39: 18.9 (retired age 37)
declined

Caminiti (admitted steroid user)
Age 31-34: 17.85
Age 35-39: 17.90 (retired age 38)
declined

McGwire
Age 31-34: 8.2
Age 35-39: 8.4 (retired age 37)
declined

Sosa
Age 31-34: 11.1
Age 35-39: 18.6 (still active)
declined

---

Hank Aaron
Age 31-34: 16.5
Age 35-39: 11.8
INCREASE!

Barry Bonds
Age 31-34: 12.8
Age 35-39: 8.2
INCREASE!

Ted Williams
Age 31-34: 13.41
Age 35-39: 13.35
INCREASE!

Cal Ripken
Age 31-34: 33.4
Age 35-39: 27.7
INCREASE!

Tony Gywnn
Age 31-34: 67.5
Age 35-39: 44.5
INCREASE!

Ken Griffey Jr (still active)
Age 31-34: 16.3
Age 35-39: 15.0
INCREASE!

Ryan Sandberg (retired age 38)
Age 31-34: 28.4
Age 35-39: 27.0
INCREASE!

Carlton Fisk
Age 31-34: 32.9
Age 35-39: 19.0
INCREASE!

Ozzie FREAKING Smith
Age 31-34: 456.4
Age 35-39: 313.25
INCREASE!

---

Decreased:
Palmeiro (known steroid user)
Caminiti (known steroid user)
Canseco (known steroid user)
McGwire
Sosa

INCREASED
Hank Aaron
Barry Bonds
Ted Williams
Cal Ripken
Tony Gwynn
Ken Griffey Jr.
Ryne Sandberg
Carlton Fisk
Ozzie FREAKING Smith

Interesting, isn't it?

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Why did you choose just these 15 players?

Especially after your previous post on selection bias.

Overall, what happens to major leaguers from 35-39 as opposed to 31-35? (I don't know the answer, but doesn't it make more sense to look at everyone, not 15 guys chosen to make a point?)

kidcolin · #**176** 08-31-2007, 11:55 AM

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Developing intense man crush on Red Bean.

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That can be said for most of SE. What I enjoy most about his posts, though, is his writing style. It's got some flavor to it along with the kick ass analysis. He should really have a high traffic blog/column/something.

SL__72 · #**177** 08-31-2007, 11:59 AM

You completely missed the point. It isn't the norm to improve after age 35, it just isn't unheard of.

And Vyse, your point was ridiculous. It might be "a lot harder" but the sample size is so ridiculously small that it doesn't matter. We are talking about essentially a sample of one person.

SL__72 · #**178** 08-31-2007, 12:01 PM

It is hard to compare historically great players to the rest of the league though. What Bonds did was a LOT less unheard of then what Ruth did.

gusmahler · #**179** 08-31-2007, 12:13 PM

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It is hard to compare historically great players to the rest of the league though. What Bonds did was a LOT less unheard of then what Ruth did.

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Ruth had a peak that lasted from about age 21 to about age 37. That's pretty unheard of also.

Kneel B4 Zod · #**180** 08-31-2007, 12:15 PM

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It is hard to compare historically great players to the rest of the league though. What Bonds did was a LOT less unheard of then what Ruth did.

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only if you just look at HR's.

also, I'm very confident that if you took a chart of every historically great hitter in MLB history, and ranked them by descending order of best .eqa season by age (like I did w/ Aaron and Bonds above) you'll find that Bonds is a huge outlier, even when only compared to the likes of Ruth, Williams, Mays, and also contemporary great hitters like Frank Thomas, McGwire, etc.