damnit damnit damnit.......... river decision

bigmac366 · #1 08-28-2007, 07:39 PM

sb is 24/11/1.2 over 300ish hands.

my image is very lag due to a sick run of broadway hands and med/big pp's. most not going to sd.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (11 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB folds,

Final Pot: 15 BB

exlka · #2 08-28-2007, 08:00 PM

just look at the pot size

ofc your hand is beat almost all the time. But you still are ahead more than 1 in 15 times.

Tryptamean · #3 08-28-2007, 08:01 PM

Haha, who was it that made a post a week or so ago about paying off river a c/r with one pair? I think he found that he was like very rarely (ever?) good. Anyway I call, but I'm not convinced you are good 1 in 14 times...

exlka · #4 08-28-2007, 08:05 PM

TAF of 1.2 doesn't mean he won't ever bluff here.

Tryptamean · #5 08-28-2007, 08:12 PM

I don't think AF of 1.2 means [censored] about whether an opponent bluff check-raises rivers in these spots. Occasional random spazzyness does not show up in stats over 300 hands, and that is the only way anybody is ever bluffing here. Seriously, this is a bluff like 1% of the time. Nevertheless, I still call because I simply don't trust my reasoning in spots like this in the 30 seconds I have to think during a hand.

sethypooh21 · #6 08-28-2007, 08:43 PM

The sethypooh theorem on river play is approximately:

TPTK. Huge pot. One Bet. Closing action. Snap call.

I lose 1 bet the majority of the time, 1 time in x look quizzically at the screen as pot is shipped to me. I get to keep my sanity and move on to the next hand.

Heisenb3rg · #7 08-28-2007, 08:48 PM

I think this is a pretty easy fold against someone with those stats

sethypooh21 · #8 08-28-2007, 09:32 PM

Looking at this again and again, considering that I would hate, hate HATE bet-folding here, I'm not sure I bet this river, as it's a pretty ugly card for us.

MartynasD · #9 08-28-2007, 10:05 PM

i can`t see u folding here,pot is 15BB,so u need to win it once in 15 times.and u will...

kimchi · #10 08-28-2007, 10:20 PM

The villain's stats suggest he's a reasonable player and no reasonable player would c-raise here after that action if they couldn't beat TPTK.

I think you'll lose more than 1:15, but I'd still have to call. For my sanity, for metagame, for the slim chance it's a missed draw desperation raise, for future reads, I'd find a call.