|
|
#21
01-02-2006, 03:20 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Rock is the Favorite and you are the Dog
I'm not taking Rock's bet. He's the clear favorite.
About 70% of return in not individual security selection but rather the fractional allocations to stocks, bonds, cash. Ditto within the Stock segment. There about 70% of return is not individual stocks but rather sector exposure. It follows that in any sector the possibility exists for outperformance by a hand-picked basket of individual issues. But, since the individual issues picked are also typically members of the overall ETF sector index, over time the individual issues will tend to regress to the sector mean. This is especially true of the leading issues in the sector, of which the ETF is typically overweight. I like his reasoning. His is a strong argument for focusing attention on sectors and not individual issues. The structure of the market also supports this idea. There is an enormous amount of money- hundreds of billions-- that will leave the stock market only stubbornly. If at all. This money switches from offense to defense but rarely exits the market. Instead the money rotates among the many sectors. One strategy is to make a sector bet and place a small portion of the total bet in 1,2 or 3 of the leaders in the sector. For example for a single sector bet, the structure may be: Sector ETF = 90% of total bet, IssueA = 5% of total bet and IssueB = 5% of total bet. This makes you overweight in the leaders in the sector. It's a fairly aggressive approach whose additional risk can be managed via the use of stops. If you have an interest in focusing more investing attention on sectors, take a look at John Murphy's daily Market Message service. It is a good tool and a great value. Reference: http://stockcharts.com/corp/MurphyDetails.html 
|
|
#24
03-01-2006, 01:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Active Stock Picking vs. Indexing Challenge
Here's the 4 month update:
MIK -1% PRAA +35% MMM -1% STX +74% RSTI +43% CREE +22% SIRF +42% average: +31% vs. VFINX, which is up 6% I know bragging is bad karma and all, but... WOOT!
|
|
#25
03-03-2006, 04:00 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Active Stock Picking vs. Indexing Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the 4 month update: MIK -1% PRAA +35% MMM -1% STX +74% RSTI +43% CREE +22% SIRF +42% average: +31% vs. VFINX, which is up 6% I know bragging is bad karma and all, but... WOOT! [/ QUOTE ] You would have been up against a lot more than VFINX
|
|
#26
03-03-2006, 04:44 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Active Stock Picking vs. Indexing Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here's the 4 month update: MIK -1% PRAA +35% MMM -1% STX +74% RSTI +43% CREE +22% SIRF +42% average: +31% vs. VFINX, which is up 6% I know bragging is bad karma and all, but... WOOT! [/ QUOTE ] You would have been up against a lot more than VFINX [/ QUOTE ] Rock, which indexes would you use to map against that port?
|
|
#27
03-03-2006, 11:38 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Active Stock Picking vs. Indexing Challenge
Uhh... yeah, that's part of why I didn't take the bet, because you didn't want to define which index would be the benchmark. Anyway, which index would you choose that has gone up more than 30% in 4 months?
|
|
#29
03-07-2006, 11:27 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Active Stock Picking vs. Indexing Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
Bump. So I can learn what is Rockrock's strategies against AvivaSimplex's picks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Looking at AvivaSimplex's picks is like looking at the small percentage of fund managers who happened to beat the index in a particular short time period. Rockrock was opening this up to everyone. Look at the 2006 stock challenge. More than 50% of the traders are underperforming the S&P 500 this year. If Rockrock was getting 6 to 5 from everyone, he'd be making a killing. -Tom
|
|
#30
03-07-2006, 02:50 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Active Stock Picking vs. Indexing Challenge
LOL at Aviva.
These are all Cramer picks. Every single one of them from what I can tell. I'll need 7 to 5 since you want me to beat a guy pumping and touting these stocks on the Internet, TV and radio every day. All the stocks he picks get that big pop the next day and the hilarious thing is I wouldn't even be that far behind if I was getting 6 to 5. From my brief look at these, I had 2 wins and 1 tie believe it or not... Nice try. Why don't u make some picks right now, I'll make mine and we find someone to hold the money? Good luck.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
