25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er - Page 3

dividius · #21 08-15-2007, 03:33 AM

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I mostly hate "call to see if they'll fire another bullet" calls, and this is no exception. I usually raise or fold in these spots. Different strokes for different folks.

tarheeljks · #22 08-15-2007, 03:44 AM

i'm glad you read pnl, but you should think about what it says as opposed to just saying oh, my stack to pot ratio is <3, so i have to shove or fold. against this villain a flop shove maximizes your losses and minimizes your value

dividius · #23 08-15-2007, 03:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i'm glad you read pnl, but you should think about what it says as opposed to just saying oh, my stack to pot ratio is <3, so i have to shove or fold. against this villain a flop shove maximizes your losses and minimizes your value

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're certain they're folding JJ and TT, yes, you are right. I don't think you should automatically assume that simply because you have 100 hands on him. That's not a large sample by any means.

tarheeljks · #24 08-15-2007, 04:03 AM

obv it's not certain whether villain ALWAYS folds TT/JJ to a shove, but we know he calls ~100% of the time w/anything better.

Sean Fraley · #25 08-15-2007, 04:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i'm glad you read pnl, but you should think about what it says as opposed to just saying oh, my stack to pot ratio is <3, so i have to shove or fold. against this villain a flop shove maximizes your losses and minimizes your value

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed where PNL was brought into this, but you have a good point.

Being pot committed simply means that you are not folding your hand in this pot if your hand has a positive expectation against the range of hands that villain will get it all-in with by showdown. What you want to do is what maximizes expectation against his entire range of handsand in this situation shoving prevents that.

Lets assume that your opponent is never going to fold AA, two pair, or a set. KK has a very small chance of getting folded. JJ has a slightly higher chance of getting folded that KK, but not as high of a chance of getting folded as TT. If you look at the pattern, you begin to see that if your opponent is going to call a flop shove with anything, it is more likely to be with hands that beat you as opposed to hands you beat. Therefore, while a flop shove isn't necessarily -EV, it will be less profitable than a line that increases the likelihood that a worse hand will get it all-in. In this hand, Hero is probably just as good calling it down and shoving any chips left at the river into the pot than shoving the flop.

dividius · #26 08-15-2007, 04:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
obv it's not certain whether villain ALWAYS folds TT/JJ to a shove, but we know he calls ~100% of the time w/anything better.

[/ QUOTE ]
Anything better being mostly AA or KK, which has equally as many variations as JJ or TT (ignoring the fact that an A came on the river; we obviously can't know that's coming on the flop.) A set is possible, but unlikely as only 99 makes sense, and that's sorta iffy. Pre-flop line doesn't look like 99. There's a chance he has a weird straight or flush draw and is getting out of line, or even a huge combo draw, but neither of those are likely either. Since everyone here is so certain he's simply c-betting, couldn't villain also have AK? He might, but most of the time here it's either AA, KK, JJ, or TT. Which is why I say shove or fold.

I can understand the call/see turn strategy, as you could then, ideally, get away from the times he has AA/KK and pick off the times he has JJ/TT. I just think we're overestimating how many times we'll be right, as a turn bet doesn't always mean he's got AA/KK or better, and a turn check doesn't always mean JJ/TT or worse. Like I said earlier, maybe I'm giving our villain too much credit, but that is they way I think at the poker table. I try not to underestimate my opponents, especially when it's online and I have only a SSS on them.

The way the hand unfolded, I would say the chances are all the money is going in away, and I like being the aggressor. So I shove or fold. If he's got the AA/KK, good for him. If he's got JJ/TT and can get away from it, good for him too. That's just the way I play. Feel free to criticize. And I'm done with this thread. I gotta go play some poker.

tarheeljks · #27 08-15-2007, 04:29 AM

mentioned pnl b/c its a hot topic in unl right now and it explicitly references this concept

Dan Bitel · #28 08-15-2007, 04:50 AM

Yeah, pushing this flop is really bad.

We have no reason to think he's 3betting light and this deep our hand is pretty marginal.

Standard spot to call and see a turn. for 100BBs, I'd be shoving without a 2nd thought though....here, I just feel we give him much to big a chance to fold TT/JJ

dividius · #29 08-15-2007, 05:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, pushing this flop is really bad.

We have no reason to think he's 3betting light and this deep our hand is pretty marginal.

Standard spot to call and see a turn. for 100BBs, I'd be shoving without a 2nd thought though....here, I just feel we give him much to big a chance to fold TT/JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
Now you that you mention this, maybe it's cause I play NL50 that I'm more prone to shoving here. NL25 is a different animal I guess. The pot did get pretty big quick though...it almost played like a NL50 hand, in terms of pot and stack sizes. I'm paying much more attention to that then to how many blinds I have, once I'm in the thick of things post-flop.

calmB4storm · #30 08-15-2007, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, pushing this flop is really bad.

We have no reason to think he's 3betting light and this deep our hand is pretty marginal.

Standard spot to call and see a turn. for 100BBs, I'd be shoving without a 2nd thought though....here, I just feel we give him much to big a chance to fold TT/JJ

[/ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">Yeah, I think everyone saying call and see a turn was pretty much spot on. He ended up showing AA. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Thanks for the help.</font>