Estimate Straw poll rusults.

[Dan.]

Paul 100% obv.

[DVaut1]

Expectations game: Romney around 25% is a disappointment. Romney around 30% is about expected. Romney at 35% would probably be considered a big win for him, and is probably a genuine momentum builder.

If Giuliani finishes 2nd, that would be surprising and very good for his campaign, but probably isn't likely. He can hand-wave away a poor showing because he wasn't competing here, so this probably doesn't signal a whole lot for his campaign if he finishes 3rd or 4th.

Obviously whichever one of the 2nd tier guys (Tancredo, Brownback, Huckabee, Tommy Thompson) finishes 2nd gets to hang around in the race for a little while longer. Huckabee and Brownback are fighting for the same cohort of intense right-wing Christians, so whoever finishes ahead between the two of them get to brag at all the fund-raisers about how they're the preferred candidate of the Christian right. Huckabee started campaigning late in Iowa, so he probably survives a weak finish. Brownback may be done if he doesn't have an impressive showing. Tancredo is lined up to get the biggest bounce if the current polling holds and he finishes 2nd, but Iowa sets up as one of his better states. I doubt he can parlay a 2nd place victory in Iowa into any kind of credible campaign. T. Thompson may or may not call it quits if he polls in the low single digits. Paul rolls on no matter what. Obviously anything better than 5% shows his supporters actually exist as an empirical reality and are capable of peeling themselves away from YouTube long enough to attend these stupid fundraisers and cast a vote. Hunter is out of the race by noon on Sunday.

The poll is relatively meaningless for F. Thompson and McCain, other than reinforcing the fact McCain's campaign is off in the wilderness somewhere, and that Thompson is late to the game and not making any impressive strides.

[Nonfiction]

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Expectations game: Romney around 25% is a disappointment. Romney around 30% is about expected. Romney at 35% would probably be considered a big win for him, and is probably a genuine momentum builder.

If Giuliani finishes 2nd, that would be surprising and very good for his campaign, but probably isn't likely. He can hand-wave away a poor showing because he wasn't competing here, so this probably doesn't signal a whole lot for his campaign if he finishes 3rd or 4th.

Obviously whichever one of the 2nd tier guys (Tancredo, Brownback, Huckabee, Thompson) finishes 2nd gets to hang around in the race for a little while longer. Huckabee and Brownback are fighting for the same cohort of intense right-wing Christians, so whoever finishes ahead between the two of them get to brag at all the fund-raisers about how they're the preferred candidate of the Christian right. Huckabee started campaigning late in Iowa, so he probably survives a weak finish. Brownback may be done if he doesn't have an impressive showing. Tancredo is lined up to get the biggest bounce if the current polling holds and he finishes 2nd, but Iowa sets up as one of his better states. T. Thompson may or may not call it quits if he polls in the low single digits. Paul rolls on no matter what. Obviously anything better than 5% shows his supporters actually exist as an empirical reality and are capable of peeling themselves away from YouTube long enough to attend these stupid fundraisers and cast a vote. Hunter is out of the race by noon on Sunday.

The poll is relatively meaningless for F. Thompson and McCain, other than reinforcing the fact McCain's campaign is off in the wilderness somewhere, and that Thompson is late to the game and not making any impressive strides.

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Pretty much agree with this.

[j555]

Romney 34%
Brownback 12%
Huckabee 11%
Tancredo 10%
Ron Paul 8%
T. Thompson 7%
Giuliani 6%
McCain 5%
F. Thompson 5%
Hunter 1%
Cox <1%

I live in Iowa and I'll probably be way off, but I think this is more realistic than what some of you are posting.

Romney should win and win big. If he doesn't win, then he might as well drop out of the race.

Brownback is from Kansas and has been campaigning hard in Iowa so I expect him to do well.

Huckabee is being pushed by the GOP as the anti-Washington candidate and has been campaigning hard in Iowa so I expect him to do well.

Tancredo has the tough immigration policy and that's about it and has also been campaigning hard in Iowa. Huckabee and Brownback need to do well or they've hinted at dropping out. Tancredo hasn't said anything about dropping out if he doesn't do well here.

I still think Paul will do fairly well. The person who quoted that GOP poll is ignorant because most of Paul's support for the straw poll will come from people who aren't affiliated with the Republican party as are those who predict he'll get 20% because he's only been here once before this week. Anything in the top 5 will be a success for him. He has enough money to go to January and no one expects him to do well, so he's the candidate with the least to lose.

Even though Tommy Thompson is from Wisconsin, he doesn't seem to be hitting it off too well here and expect him to drop out soon after the straw poll.

Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson will be on the ballot, but will not be present. I may have overestimated their percentages because Iowans aren't happy that they thought the straw poll wasn't worth their time. Fred Thompson isn't even a declared candidate so I'm not even sure why he's on the ballot.

Duncan Hunter was polling at 1% among Republicans and doesn't have the appeal to independents Ron Paul does.

John Cox is a relative unknown and has never held a political office.

[DVaut1]

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I still think Paul will do fairly well. The person who quoted that GOP poll is ignorant because most of Paul's support for the straw poll will come from people who aren't affiliated with the Republican party

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To actually have your vote counted in this thing, you have to make a donation to the Republican Party to get into the dinner where the vote is actually cast. Oh, not to mention the fact you have to get to Ames to be part of the dinner where the survey is taken.

You know alot of people *not affiliated* with the Republican Party willing to donate $40 to the GOP and drive across Iowa just to get into the event so they can vote in this poll?

I know Paul's supporters are a devoted bunch, but I'm skeptical all the polling is wrong on this one, especially that voting in the thing is substantially more burdensome than voting in a general election; and these primary straw polls aren't exactly notorious for bringing out independent voters, particularly when it costs $40 just to cast a vote. Not to mention the fact you have to drive out to Ames to attend the thing. Even if we discount GOP leadership, and say all of the county party leaders are wrong about Paul's non-existent support in Iowa (which is probably foolhardy, considering party leaders who would probably be in the best position to know how much support there is for a candidate in their area, and which people are planning to drive out to Ames to attend the event, since they're likely doing alot of the coordinating of rides/resources/etc.) -- all of the scientific polls concur he's not going to get more than 5%, too.

Maybe Paul pulls off a miracle and proves the leadership and the pollsters wrong, but that sure sounds like an irrational bet to me.

[j555]

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To actually have your vote counted in this thing, you have to make a donation to the Republican Party to get into the dinner where the vote is actually cast.

You know alot of people *not affiliated* with the Republican Party willing to donate $40 to the GOP just to get into the event so they can vote in this poll?

I know Paul's supporters are a devoted bunch, but I'm skeptical all the polling is wrong on this one, especially that voting in the thing is substantially more burdensome than voting in a general election; and these primary straw polls aren't exactly notorious for bringing out independent voters, particularly when it costs $40 just to cast a vote. Not to mention the fact you have to drive out to Ames to attend the thing.

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You may be right, but I don't think we can underestimate how loyal and dedicated some of his supporters are. They have been pooling their own money to buy radio commercials, newspaper ads, and tickets for the straw poll to give to Iowa residents to vote for Paul. They may be crazy, but they sure are determined.

I guess we'll find out tomorrow for sure, but I think he'll do better than expected. If he doesn't, then it won't really matter because he didn't put much money or campaining into this as the other 2nd tier candidates and he has more money than they do. The Paul campaign themselves bought 500 tickets to give away and might buy more if needed. The straw poll is expected to attract 40,000 voters and that's on the high end. I think Paul has gotten enough loyal supporters to come up with 2,000 votes for 5% at the very least.

[DVaut1]

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The Paul campaign themselves bought 500 tickets to give away and might buy more if needed.

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This isn't exactly reassuring:

"Paul's supporters are so devoted and will show up in so great a number that...Paul's campaign has had to buy a bunch of tickets and give them away."

I'm sure every campaign is doing this, but again, it doesn't exactly indicate a position of strength or other-worldly devotion.

[The4Aces]

DVaut. Why not give your predictions? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DVaut1]

Post deleted by DVaut1

[DVaut1]

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DVaut. Why not give your predictions?

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If you insist...