Big Stacked AKs

[shnutbuster]

its funny just as i read this i came across the exact same situation. picked up AKh in the CO position early in a MTT (15/30 level) and raised up to 135...got called by the SB. flop came 7-7-10, 2 hearts. he checks, i take free card (wanted to bet but didnt). turn is a 4 of clubs...he shoves i insta-call to see his 44. ouch.

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
1. u didn't reraise him enough to make him committ all in or fold.

2. as played u r a favorite w fold equity shove

[/ QUOTE ]

No fold equity...

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
its funny just as i read this i came across the exact same situation. picked up AKh in the CO position early in a MTT (15/30 level) and raised up to 135...got called by the SB. flop came 7-7-10, 2 hearts. he checks, i take free card (wanted to bet but didnt). turn is a 4 of clubs...he shoves i insta-call to see his 44. ouch.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an entirely different situation depending on stack sizes. The particular hand of interest in this thread has effective stacks approximately = to the size of the pot. I am assuming yours did not. You should probably c-bet that flop.

[hamnegger]

ok i've started to read the posts. most say check. i definitely disagree.

if he even folds 10%- 20% this play is +ev . say we check and he had kqs or qjs or aq and the turn is a non-club queen. you just made yourself a nice dog on river. say turn is an ace. forget action from any hand except aq or aj. if you are going to call why not bet? you need to see 5 cards here. checking and then a blank turn means 99 is shoving you can't call profitably. he may have raised w 66. is he comfortable calling an all in? we're a favorite against 66 anyway ( dbl paired board adds additional outs)

[hamnegger]

oh and by the way we have learned shoving AA here makes sense too bc it looks like ak.

[Tackleberry]

I followed this post from the beginning and was quite convinced that Sherman was wrong. Now, I´ve changed my mind - which means that now I strongly believe that Sherman is right. The key in his logic (for me) is that he made his decision on the flop. This eliminates the question of odds &amp; outs on the turn and maximizes the possible winnings (while it by definition is <u>very</u> unlikely to maximize our losses).

@Sherman: my respect, I needed some time to get this!!

[ThePershore]

[ QUOTE ]
No fold equity...

[/ QUOTE ]

You have at least some FE, people fold pairs here all the time. Just cos YOU wouldn't doesn't mean villian won't.

I agree with Barry/Sherman to some extent, but I'd still bet 4k with AKs - this flop is a great flop for our hand AND I also obv bet the same with JJ, QQ, KK, AA here, so if villian wants to call with any pair then great, cos then I get paid off when I have a bigger pair.

Edit: I'd like checking a little more if we were deeper stacked.

[woohoo88]

I think the best possible line of action for me is dictated on what a standard player in THIS tournament has for a range here pf. If Sherman's range is correct (66+,ATs+,ATo+,KQs+,KQo+.) I totally agree with his line and reasoning. However, I have a bit of skepticism on this being a reasonable range.

Feel free to take this with a grain of salt, as I do not personally play this high of a buy-in so I do not have a great default profile. The problem I see, which I assume all will agree, is that any good/thinking player is not raise/cold calling over 1/4th their stack with a lot of that range (with any intention of check/folding that is). I'm guessing that since the field is only 140 there are no sats to this tournament which would bring in worse players. I'm also looking at his pfr size (2.5BB) which makes me lean towards him being at least a decent player.

This leads me to believe that he has either a very strong range pf or was going for a stop and go and hit hard on the flop. Nevertheless, I'm still shoving this flop while I have enough equity given the dead money to easily be +ev.





Of course I could be completely overthinking this and giving opponents, even at this level, too much credit. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]

This leads me to believe that he has either a very strong range pf or was going for a stop and go and hit hard on the flop. Nevertheless, I'm still shoving this flop while I have enough equity given the dead money to easily be +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is contradictory imho - unless I did understand it wrong, which may be as I´m rather tired. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] If you assume that Villain has a very tight range - which means he has a good, probably made hand - where should your FE come from? What should Villain ever lay down here? The only hand that comes to my mind would be AK - given your estimated range.

[woohoo88]

I didn't say FE. I said equity. Something like..

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.016 secs 3,155,625 games/sec

Board: Tc 7c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.305% 41.20% 00.11% 20801 54.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 58.695% 58.59% 00.11% 29581 54.00 { QQ+, TT, ATs, A7s, KTs, QTs, ATo, A7o, KTo, QTo }

3:2 getting nearly 2:1 for his stack.