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#1
07-08-2007, 02:52 PM
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3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
Villain has been the massive chip leader since we were in the money and has been playing uber aggressive open raising to just over 3xbb about 66% when it folds to him and I imagine he's doing it with 75-80% of his hands here. He's not afraid to call with a marginal hand if he's getting decent odds, earlier a shortie shoved for 9k and he called with with J4o from bb getting 2.2:1. Payouts are approximately $2800, 3800 and 5800.
Full Tilt Poker (3 handed) Button 375,666 SB 82,984 HERO 52,850 2500/5000 blinds, 600 ante Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Button raises 16000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero... Fold I have 47k and m of 5 or so, shove and he folds (he's getting exactly 2:1) i'm at 72k, shove and he calls i'm at 108k or busto. 
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#3
07-08-2007, 03:01 PM
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Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
I think Hero folds. This is a really marginal spot, even against two random cards you're only a marginal favorite and given your description of villain he is absolutely calling your shove. It sucks that you have so few chips, but I think you need to wait until you have a hand that has a decent chance of being ahead.
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#4
07-08-2007, 09:07 PM
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Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a really easy shove to me. [/ QUOTE ]
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#7
07-09-2007, 02:26 AM
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Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
Looks like a shove too me given what you know about him. If you don't and you have to shove on a more marginal hand I would hate to have him call just because of decent odds with any two.
I'd probably say this would be a shove in pretty much any instance given any player unless for some reason the chip lead is playing super tight which wouldn't make sense.
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#8
07-09-2007, 02:28 AM
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Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
Do we want to if he is calling with really marginal hands if he is given like 2:1 odds on his money?
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#9
07-09-2007, 05:02 AM
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Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
shove it in so fast
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#10
07-09-2007, 05:55 AM
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Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
Do not push.
Pokerstove says you are 52% EV against a top 75% hand and 52.5% against a top 80% hand. So assuming he's calling with his whole range, which I think is pretty fair here, pushing is obv +Chip EV. However, we only care about Monetary EV: If you fold stacks are: Button: 384k SB: 80k Hero: 47k Monetary EV: $3369 If you double up: Button: 323k SB: 80k Hero: 109k Monetary EV: $3842 So pushing makes your MEV .52*$3842+.48*$2800 = $3341 In other words it is actually -$28 MEV to push. There's no way you should be pushing here unless you think you are an underdog against your opponents and gambling is your best chance of winning. In the later stages of a NLHE tournament Chip EV and MEV cease to coincide because of the payout structure. If everything went to 1st place then all these guys claiming A2o is ahead so push would be right. Whether the stop and go is right here is more complicated. Personally I would just fold because the stop and go is a pretty transparent play, and A2o plays so badly after the flop with other courses of action. You can't afford to lose the 11k chips which give you a good amount of your preflop fold equity against a guy who's already calling everything at this point.
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