last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push

[registrar]

Is SB shoving any two here, top 80%, top 50%?

How light are the big stacks calling pushes?

[El Stuntman]

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Is SB shoving any two here, top 80%, top 50%?

How light are the big stacks calling pushes?

[/ QUOTE ]

top 50% imo

big stacks are calling very, very light (one of them got his big stack by calling a shove with K4 and flopping 2 fours, knocking out AA). I believe I am the best player at the table, although you may feel free to disagree! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[registrar]

I've changed my mind then. I'd probably call. If he's shoving top 50%, calling will be +cEV and, I would suggest, +$EV at a table where big stacks are calling that light. If calling ranges behind were two broadway, medium aces and 55+, which they often are, I think you can expect folding and open shoving lots to be more profitable but if you're getting snapped off, then get the money in now, when you can eliminate one player, move up the ladder and play poker three way, rather than fold, and try and double up a smaller stack with what sounds like no FE.

[JammyDodga]

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[ QUOTE ]
At this stage in the tourney you MUST be thinking about payouts, +EV in chips can very easily be -EV in dollers.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, sorry I didn't want to give the impression I was some kind of eccentric millionaire who didn't care about money!


[/ QUOTE ]

That wasn't what I was trying to get at, what I meant was that the payoffs determine your actions not the chance of winning chips.

1st $6,345
2nd $4,230
3rd $2,115
4th $1,645

Stack if you call and win 160k
Stack if you fold - 70k
If you lose - you go out and get 4th for $1645

With 160 k lets say your going to win 30% of the time, come 2nd 35% and 3rd 35%

EV of 160k stack = .3 x 6345 + .35 x 4230 + .35 x 2115
= $4124.25

with 70k, lets assume you win 15%, come second 20%, 3rd 30% and 4th 35%
EV of 70k stack = .15 x 6345 + .2 x 4230 + .3 x 2115 + .35 x 1645
= $3008

if you call, EV = .45 x 4124.25 = .55 * 1645 (4th prize)
= $2760.66

So if you fold, your EV is higher than if you call.

Feel free to dispute the percentages, but this is how you need to be thinking (although unless you are some kind of maths freak, rough estimates will have to do in an actual game).

The point I am trying to make is that +EV in chips is not always the same a positive expected doller value for you.

[Soulman]

I'm getting other numbers here when doing an ICM calculation (using the calculator found here).

Base numbers:

Payouts
1st: $6345 = 0.44 ICM value
2nd: $4230 = 0.30 ICM value
3rd: $2115 = 0.15 ICM value
4th: $1645 = 0.11 ICM value

Total prize pool: $14.335

Villain pushes top 50%, meaning 22 = 47.3% vs this range

ICM value of folding for hero: 0.1913

ICM value of calling for hero: 0.527*0.11 + 0,473*0,3128 = 0.206

Where 0.11 and 0.2785 represents Hero's ICM values after losing and winning respectively.

$ value of folding = 0.11 * $14,335 = $2,742
$ value of calling = 0.189 * $14,335 = $2,719


In other words, there's basically no noticeable difference in the ICM value of folding and calling here.

However, since the big stacks will be calling very loosely, I think you need to take some risks here. By calling and winning, you regain both steal and resteal FE. By folding, you barely have any steal FE since the big stacks call liberally. ICM doesn't take these factors into the equation. By folding, you also might end up with purely -EV situations on average.


All in all, with the ICM values of a call and fold being so close, I prefer calling for the reasons mentioned above.

[El Stuntman]

thanks soulman, excellent stuff!

it's almost identical to what a friend of mine came up with below:

OK - I ran the numbers on this one:

Assuming the SB pushes with a random hand (as he should), according to PokerStove, 22 has .503 equity. There are 3 possible outcomes and the $EV results according to the ICM calculator at http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php:


Code:
Action Stack $EV
-----------------------------------------------
Hero Folds 70K $2756.78
Hero Calls and loses 0 $1645.00
Hero Calls and wins 160K $3965.82
$EV(call) = (p(win) * EV(win)) + (p(lose) * EV(lose))
= .503($3965.82) + (1-0.503)($1645)
= $1994.81 + $817.57
= $2812.38

For an $EV gain from calling of $2812.38 – $2756.78 = $55.60

If your opponent has to have some standards for the jam, say 22+, Ax, Kx, QT, JT (37.3% of hands), 22’s equity against this range drops to .473. Doing the same calculations gives a $EV of calling of $2742.75 for a loss of $14.04.

So the bottom line here is that it’s so close that it’s nearly EV neutral and it doesn’t really matter what you do!

[El Stuntman]

results!

I called, he had A5 and spiked an Ace on the flop

then he typed 'ty' in the chat [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

the knob jockey further compounded the insult by taking the whole thing down within the space of 6 more hands

lol, donkaments

[jman3232]

good discussion and congrats on the $1600!