Irisheyes' MLB Overnight Robot

[irisheyes]

6/29 -- Two plays today, both in NL

MIL@CHC
MIL +114
Risk 1 unit to win 1.14

SD@LAD
LAD +108
Risk 1 unit to win 1.08

Good luck.

[TomG]

I also like both LAD and Mil... but I was reluctant to bet Mil b/c Yovani Gallardo is still an unknown.

[Fraubump]

I'm curious what in your algorithm favors LA. Offense? There's not much data on Kuo; Young's stats have improved every year and he has a nearly .666 career winning %. Do you count pitcher win % at all or is that just considered a loosely correlated byproduct of a pitcher's ability.

[TomG]

A pitcher's W/L record is a meaningless stat. The sportsbooks have the wrong team favored IMO. Kuo hasn't played as much as Young but his peripherial stats thus far indicate he is as good if not a better pitcher than Young (Kuo's 105 strike-outs in 92 innings pitched is very impressive). But I'm willing to call pitching a push and let LAD be favored based on only SD's piss poor hitting and home-field advantage.

[JoshEngleman]

I just went through all of my numbers and I'm in agreement with you for the Dodgers. My system has it as a really bigplay. Apparently, it likes what it sees in Kuo. I'll be interested to see how it holds up tonight.

[irisheyes]

Frau, with the original formula I learned first in TomG's thread from the Michael Murray book (Betting Baseball 2007) the Dodgers have nearly a 5% edge in batting. The basic calc is OBP x SLG.

[irisheyes]

Tom,

even though Gallardo is clearly unproven, I gave him the benefit of the doubt by setting him equal to Hill and the Brewers still had an edge. Even so, I think this guy is the real deal.

I didn't see the end of the game, and find it hilarious that three of my first five public bets with this system have been decided by walk-offs in the 9th inning.

What's that smell? Mmmm.... variance.

[irisheyes]

Josh,

agree with you. Kuo doesn't appear to suck as bad as his ERA would have us believe. Sample size too small to really say, but I felt it was worth a small gambool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[irisheyes]

It seems I have a taste for betting games with multi-run 9th inning rallies (the wrong kind).

6/29 Results 0-2

YTD 1-5 (-3.29u)

[irisheyes]

Barring some significant line moves, there doesn't look to be anything interesting on tomorrow's NL card. My system is still far too manual for my taste, and I'll probably look at the AL matchups in the morning.