$22 Deep Stack -- What Hand Does This???

Sorry, too many tables to convert. No read on the Villain for the same reason. Could not think of a hand that made sense for UTG here, so I thought I was ahead enough here to call.

Blinds are 50/100. Shorty snadwiched between us in the hand has about half our stacks.

Seat 8: LedStudent (13108 in chips)
Seat 9: bulldog913 (14165 in chips)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LedStudent [9s 9d]
bulldog913: raises 200 to 300
cracker9ball: folds
bradjohn: folds
htmancharlie: folds
MetalRocker: calls 300
ChrisWard100: folds
Shermie: folds
smeiterh: calls 250
LedStudent: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [2d 5d 6h]
smeiterh: checks
LedStudent: checks
bulldog913: bets 300
MetalRocker: calls 300
smeiterh: folds
LedStudent: calls 300
*** TURN *** [2d 5d 6h] [Th]
LedStudent: checks
bulldog913: bets 500
MetalRocker: calls 500
LedStudent: calls 500
*** RIVER *** [2d 5d 6h Th] [Kc]
LedStudent: checks
bulldog913: bets 1500
MetalRocker: folds
LedStudent...

[Austiger]

I would bet the flop just to see where UTG stands. If he calls or raises, I probably give up. No reason to think you are behind anybody else at that point and you need to protect your hand. As played, fold the turn. If you're still ahead, you are surely dodging a minefield of outs on the river and if you are behind, you may be way behind, etc.

[LSgambler]

Lead flop about 2/3 pot and see what happens. If the PR raises then prolly let it go. If one of the callers pf raises then I think you should call and re-evaluate turn.

As played, villian's line on the turn looks really weird and weak. It doesnt look like he is trying to protect his hand. I have no idea what he has here, but I think i call because you are getting over 6 to 1.

Probably lay it down on the river. But this hand confuses the [censored] out of me.

[NoahSD]

Well.. fold pre tournament.

Everything seems fine. Fold the river. I think his bet sizes are a pretty strong tell that he's sure he's ahead, and he def doesn't think he's ahead with 88.

OK, let's review.

He never plays JJ+ this way. He basically never plays a set like this on the flop and turn. There's a whole bunch of draws on this flop and his betting pattern on the flop and turn kind of look like he is trying to control the price he has to draw at.

Lastly, the K on the river might seem like a good bluffing card into two opponents who haven't shown any strength and might be calling down with a A6 or a pair and a draw.

I was going to fold if the other guy called, because I just don't think my hand can hold up against a bettor and a caller. My main concern was that the he had the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river and he was making a value bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Well.. fold pre tournament.

Everything seems fine. Fold the river. I think his bet sizes are a pretty strong tell that he's sure he's ahead, and he def doesn't think he's ahead with 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

Noah,

Does he really play something he's "sure" he's ahead with like this with so many draws and two opponents calling?

[SuperUberBob]

Well, he raised UTG preflop and bet every street afterwards. I don't think he does this with a marginal hand here. The only thing you're beating is a busted draw.

I think you're beat. Fold river.

[FortunaMaximus]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, he raised UTG preflop and bet every street afterwards. I don't think he does this with a marginal hand here. The only thing you're beating is a busted draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I open somewhat LAGgier than most PF, and I like opening from EP.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're beat. Fold river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well. It's a call you can make against some opponents and be good a % of the time. Take an opponent who opens 43s+, 97s+, etc. in addition to a perceived tight standard UTG range, and the river decision is closer.

If he's opening that wide and firing 3, he should have 2p+ at minimum here. Sure, you beat 76s and 77-88, but that's about it really. It'd be a Hero call, but not necessarily a profitable one.

[Rickyroodido]

I dont like this at all without any read on villian. Play less tables and get better reads.

[BarryLyndon]

Call. I lean towards a call because:

1. This is a $22 AND
2. This is a draw heavy board AND
3. Most importantly, he has a very large stack in a great structure, and is very likely to say "well, if I put 1500 in this now, then I can win with my AdXd, Ahxh, or a missed straight draw and if I don't win, then [censored] it, I still have lots of chips yay."

The deep structure of this tournament makes this call OK, but it's still, at best, marginally +EV. Still, you had a read, so stick with it at this point, the pot is big and a lot of these players are terrible.

Barry