Derby Picks

[NajdorfDefense]

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Naj
1) I don't see one race revealing so much more about a horse than a ton of races before.

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This is false,first off. Curlin had 2 races, lifetime.
StSense had 2 this year. Where are you getting 'a ton' from?
Barbaro had 5 in 2 years prior to the Derby. Etc.

More importantly, there was ZERO data on ANY horse at distances > 1.125mi.

Distance of a horse race is crucial to who the winner will be - that's why there are quarter horses, sprinters, milers, and 'classic' distance races. [And 2-3+mi on Turf.]
Do you see why?

Or are you assuming that because a horse can run 6 furlongs, he can run 10 furlongs just as easily - even if he comes in DFL in the Derby?

BTW, we also have centuries of breeding data and 100s of generations of horses showing that qualities like early speed, stamina, ability to run fast for 1.5mi, etc, are heritable.
That alone shouldn't convince you but is part of the argument that horses with proper breeding, who win G1 races at distances >1.125mi are more likely to do it again than horses w/ none of those qualities.

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3) You arb analogy could be just the opposite as arbs 99% of the time have one +EV side.

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Yes, and we pointed out, correctly, which side it was - the +500 side - notice how it dropped to +350. How does this not answer the question to a large degree - what am I missing? You don't seem to be giving credit where due here.

You seem to be saying '6-5 odds are wrong if he doesn't win' but you could say that about '5-1 odds were wrong if' and '10-1 odds were wrong, he shoulda been 50-1' and etc. That's not an answer. He could be a 3-10 favorite and lose with those odds being the correct odds. He could get 2-outed.

If you think the bodog odds are right, then you can still construct an +EV bet by taking the opposite side[s] in the parimutual, [assuming me/Clark are right about the public jumping on StSense,] since you are claiming the public is way off. Yes/no?

It has to be one or the other. [Unless futures and post odds are both exactly EV=, on every horse, which we both agree will never ever happen in a horse race.]

As Clark and I have said [and we frequently disagree] those are the odds he will run at, we're not saying they are necessarily correct, I agree with you on that.

But you cannot deny more information spread widely among all handicappers virtually always leads to a more correct line, than would otherwise occur.

[Thremp]

1) I actually had thought most had run more races. Maybe I was mistaken or confused about the being raced a 2 year olds. I was aware that these races are much longer. I just find it somewhat hard to stomach a 2 minute race revealing a world of difference, but we disagree on this aspect continually as you seem to prefer a recent form aspect and I think its inherently ghey.
3) The -350 side has moved to -500 steadily over the course of the day. That means nothing in and of itself. For a small market prop with a arbable line, this is an indicator the market is inefficient, not that you or I was correct. Your second statement is meaningless and gibberish. I'm saying unless he is much better/faster than the next fastest horses he should not be priced at 6:5.

Your stuff about parimutual pools doesn't seem to account for the large takeout and the typical patterns that exist in them where faves/longshots are overpriced (Bishop, someone correct me if I'm wrong. This is a back the Royals, fade the yankees comment I heard that is considered generally correct, but needs specific review).

I'd really like to review some parimutual data on these larger races in the past especially for winners of each race and see what turns out. I'd expect the winners to be grossly overvalued, but can't prove this in the least.

More information is always a more efficient market. You got me there though.

[Clarkmeister]

You seem really, really hung up on the fact that since he was 9/2 in the Derby that 7/5 in the Preakness must be horrible, and that's not at all necessarily the case. Note I'm not saying it is or it isn't, just that it doesn't at all have to follow as you seem to think.

I am struggling to think of a single race where there is more information learned than the Derby and can't come up with one. There is a reason that in modern times the Preakness has been by far the most formful of the TC races.

Anyways, some useless historical info that I acknowledge isn't worth a ton. Since 1980, 3 of 28 Derby favorites have won. By comparison, 10 of 28 won the Preakness. Oddly enough, of the 18 non-favorites to win the Preakness, 5 were Derby winners.

[Thremp]

Clark,

I'll go with that the line might not be horridly off, but I doubt that +130 is an efficient price as if the parimutuel pool goes off at anything like it should, his real odds will be significantly higher due to takeout.

I'll go with the 2nd aspect you point out as well. My understanding is neither broad nor deep on this topic so alas...

Meh, stats are stats... Without odds no one cares. I think I got into an argument with ImBen about ND win % in the last like 9 bowl games (I was correct as well) and how it was approximated. Essentially a poor methodology was used pointing to an errant result. Same thing here could be used. Without adjusting for huge faves etc its kinda meh.

The parimutuel pool should adjust to a 118% market, no?

[Clarkmeister]

I agree that 130, should he go off at that, isn't the efficient price. That's why I used 160. And this particular horse, with his style, past performances and breeding could easily go off at -500 instead of the -250 I calculated. I tried to create cushion to adjust for the vig when using +160 times -250 to calculate the +264 fair value.

If nothing else, my money is where my mouth is. Big big bet at +360. I figure I'll hold some, arb some, and see what the field looks like.

My preliminary inclination is to bet against him in the race itself, but it's simply too early to know how the track will be playing, who will enter, what posts they get, and most importantly what the pace scenario will look like.

But in the two biggest races he's run in (Derby and BC Juvy), where every horse he competed against was primed for their peak possible effort, only one horse out of 32 raceday opponents was able to get within 8 lengths of him, and he's about to face a weaker field than either of those. I suspect he's a horse for the course at CD, but one still has to respect that kind of domination.

[NajdorfDefense]

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1) I actually had thought most had run more races. Maybe I was mistaken or confused

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Yeah, no shti!

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Your stuff about parimutual pools doesn't seem to account for the large takeout

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VIP has a 15% rebate - you can find 10-12% anywhere easily. The VIP takeout is a huge 2%, zomg! This is for their pari-mutuel betting, fyi. It doesn't seem like you knew that.

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and the typical patterns that exist in them where faves/longshots are overpriced (This is a back the Royals, fade the yankees comment I heard that is considered generally correct, but needs specific review).

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I'll correct you - in horse racing, unlike baseball, decades of data on thousands of races at every track tell us the exact opposite - that underdogs are *always* overpriced due to the retail bettor looking to hit the 50-1 shot and remembering the very, very few horses that do so like Giacomo & Ferdinand at KD, and Mojave and Action This Day and Arcangues at 133-1 winning the BC Classic.
There are several horse racing books that will prove this out to you with stats beyond your wildest imagination, Beyer and others have written on it for decades.

Again, this does not mean that StSense should go off at 6-5. Just that, statistically speaking, Joe Sixpack would rather take 40-1 odds on a horse he likes than lay 3-5 on a horse.

[NajdorfDefense]

fwiw, I make him -300 to -350 should he win the Preakness, assuming he's healthy, etc. And if Spun and Curlin dont' run watch out.

[Clarkmeister]

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fwiw, I make him -300 to -350 should he win the Preakness, assuming he's healthy, etc. And if Spun and Curlin dont' run watch out.

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I'd guess that one of the two for sure will drop out of the Belmont if neither wins. Maybe both. If SS wins, it will partly depend on just how he wins. If he goes Smarty Jones, Funny Cide or Afleet Alex on them, I'd guess both drop out. Pushing for the 3rd leg can really hurt you for the rest of the season and both look like reasonably nice horses.

I wish there was less speed in the race. I'd love to unload on Hard Spun.

[TripleH68]

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I'd love to unload on Hard Spun.

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Do you subscribe to the bounce theories?

[Clarkmeister]

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I'd love to unload on Hard Spun.

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Do you subscribe to the bounce theories?

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Depends on the race. But he looks like a nice young horse who is just getting better and better. 82-95-95-101-107. I could easily see 105+ winning the Preakness. Similar to his TG numbers of 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, -1.

I'm guessing there will be too much speed in the race, but I'm not that concerned about a major bounce. I'm more concerned with Curlin doing that. Lightly raced, thrown to the wolves, brutal trip, still ran a good race. He may need more time to recover. Who knows.