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#153
05-08-2007, 08:38 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
Ah, I see what you're saying, but how does that validate the TC odds? Multiple combined bad odds doesn't make another bet using those numbers good....? [/ QUOTE ] No one ever said it was a good bet, they just said that if you want to bet SS, you're getting a significantly better line just doing the TC prop. 
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#154
05-08-2007, 08:46 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ah, I see what you're saying, but how does that validate the TC odds? Multiple combined bad odds doesn't make another bet using those numbers good....? [/ QUOTE ] No one ever said it was a good bet, they just said that if you want to bet SS, you're getting a significantly better line just doing the TC prop. [/ QUOTE ] I've repeatedly said I am currently inclined to bet against SS on Preakness Day. But when the line is so much higher on SS than it will be otherwise (and as his Preakness odds drop large arb opportunities could arise), my point is that it's still a very good value bet. I bet Yes at +360 for a good amount and will play it by ear from here on it.
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#155
05-08-2007, 08:51 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
Ah, I see what you're saying, but how does that validate the TC odds? Multiple combined bad odds doesn't make another bet using those numbers good....? [/ QUOTE ] The odds won't be *that* incorrect. If they are, you can just bet "No" on win the Preakness at some offshore book. Last year I did exactly that in the Preakness betting against Barbaro.
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#156
05-08-2007, 09:06 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ah, I see what you're saying, but how does that validate the TC odds? Multiple combined bad odds doesn't make another bet using those numbers good....? [/ QUOTE ] The odds won't be *that* incorrect. If they are, you can just bet "No" on win the Preakness at some offshore book. Last year I did exactly that in the Preakness betting against Barbaro. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you say one thing and then say the exact opposite? They were *that* incorrect obviously.
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#157
05-08-2007, 09:14 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
Ah, I see what you're saying, but how does that validate the TC odds? Multiple combined bad odds doesn't make another bet using those numbers good....? [/ QUOTE ] I express poorly. One of the following, at a minimum, must be true: a) +500 fixed odds is a huge +EV bet, because he will be much lower in the pari-mutual field. [given both by 'cappers here, as well as past history of bookies, 'cappers, trainers and owners with 100s of $millions they can bet on the race until some sort of 'fair' value is achieved.] b)+500 fixed odds is a huge +EV bet, [as pointed out ahead of time by me, Clark, others] because you can short that bet at -350 elsewhere online and create free $$. Both of the above create arb situations - no? Isn't that the definition of an +EV bet? If you are still struggling, assume it was +1500 to win TC. StSense goes off at 6-5 favorite at Pimlico - you don't see any +EV situations from those 2 facts? [Now, if the Belmont was some race that StSense was not capable of winning, it would be much harder to tell fair value, but since none of these horses have run that distance, and only SS has won at even 1.25mi, he has to be considered the favorite if he wins at Pimlico and is healthy. You cannot make a logical case otherwise.] Don't know if that helped, it is intuitively obvious to me so I have trouble describing perhaps.
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#158
05-08-2007, 09:15 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] YES!!! THANKS SO MUCH NAJ FOR PUSHING HARD SPUN. I won 3 matchups. THANKS AGAIN. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] 1) Joking. 2) I meant specifically the call on him at 18-1 or worse when the odds he went off at were half that. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] But you do get 100% credit, I meant everyone else...AMIRITE...shipitcrucial.
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#159
05-08-2007, 09:21 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
I think Clark and I are struggling to say the same thing.
The odds have to approach fair value by post time, BUT if they don't you simply Arb the hell out of the incorrect line [in fact, both may be incorrect and give you a massive middle.] Say Parimutuel Colts are -900 to win SB. At Bodog Colts are +9900 to win SB. I think this answers your question about how to make $$ from 2 bad lines.
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#160
05-08-2007, 09:23 PM
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Re: Derby Picks
Naj,
I'm still not really following. Here are the problems. 1) I don't see one race revealing so much more about a horse than a ton of races before. 2) I don't think that these owners/racers/etc create a fair market value anymore than I think that baseball futures are efficient in the playoffs or that futures are really very efficient at all. 3) You arb analogy could be just the opposite as arbs 99% of the time have one +EV side. 4) Actually neither of those really needs to be true as -350 on No could be the correct line and the pari-mutuel market is inefficient. Thats essentially what I'm getting at. I find it hard to believe that a these markets are efficient since from what you've been saying that winners of the Derby go off at essentially even money in the Preakness (Or much lower odds) for no other real reason than an excellent performance in the Derby.
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