SSNL [cheese] thread: MARCH 2007 Pt. 2 (nc)

[ElPhoenix]

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Although i hate to agree with clayton (his ego is big enough, believe me)

I'd have to agree with him on this one..

nh sir.

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my ego is what makes me improve, fwiw. i have an image to uphold, y'know

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egowned

[SpecT]

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my opinion: tons of SSNL are breakeven @ .5/1 and 1/2, but in a more fluid sense. ill explain.

prob only 15% could make more than 3ptbb/100.

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isn't there something to be said for the fact that SSNL players are "the cream of the crop"?

of those that post regularly, I think or at least get the feeling the % has to be higher than 15, much higher actually.

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alot of players here arent really the cream of the crop. they just stumbled on this site beacause of dumb luck. post abit, or read ppls advice, but dont really apply or follow it. also yes, there's probably a higher % of winning players amoung the reg posters, but reg posters dont make up a huge % of total posters on 2p2 (kinda just guessing here, could be wrong)

[SpecT]

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I think longterm is around 200k-400k hands

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i was talkin to sum ppl about it, and apparently with a st. dev of 30 (actually mayb it was 40) over 1million hands ur true winrate could be +/- 0.7ptbb/100 compared to ur actual winrate using a 95%C.I. kinda scary

edit- and u might think, well that means sum1 with a true winrate of 3ptbb/100 would only run at 2.3ptbb/100, which isnt a big difference. but over 1mil hands... well, its a pretty big difference, specially in terms of $$$

[lucky_mf]

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a small percentage beat up on 1/2 but could never beat 3/6+ unless they got lots of coaching

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There are probably more than few people out there that could beat 3/6+, but don’t want to bother because they do well enough playing 1/2 month don’t want to deal with the stress of frequently 2K-3K+ swings. I might well be in this category right now. I’m rolled to play higher than 1/2, my shots at 2/4, 3/6, and 5/10 have been successful, but I’m not sure I can handle it when my 3.2k 1/2 downswing becomes of 10k+ downswing at higher limits. There a point for some people where absolute variation matters. In the event of a 10K downswing I might (i) get depressed, (ii) be really unpleasant for the wife and kids to be around, and/or (iii) tilt off my roll, whereas even losing 2k+ in a day playing 1/2 doesn’t phase me or affect my family life. If I can make ~10k per month from poker without stress, playing against a lot of bad players (plus another ~8k per month from my day job), - why move up? This is my new line of thinking anyway.

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tons of SSNL players would be winners if they got coached or played more hours per day, but are content making what they make and show the days they make 2k and would forget about the days they lose 3k.

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I’m all for a more honest accounting of profits. Some people are pretty good at showing graphs for good and bad days (BG for instance – but there are others), but many others only show us the good stretches. C’mon people – post the graphs for the days you sucked. If you had a crappy month, put the graph up. I’m personally not that interested in seeing just seeing these select samples where people were running-playing good. From a spectator’s perspective it is a lot more interesting (and realistic) to see variance than smooth upward trending graphs.

Lucky

[lucky_mf]

A player with a standard deviation of 40 PTBB/100 needs about 250K hands before they can determine their "true" win rate to withing 1 PTBB (i.e., with a margin of error of 1 PTBB).

Lucky

[lucky_mf]

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alot of players here arent really the cream of the crop. they just stumbled on this site beacause of dumb luck. post abit, or read ppls advice, but dont really apply or follow it. also yes, there's probably a higher % of winning players amoung the reg posters, but reg posters dont make up a huge % of total posters on 2p2 (kinda just guessing here, could be wrong)

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These players read the stickies and find out TAG stats are something like 22/18/3, then try to play to achieve these stats. How many players has this hurt?

I would have to think a lot, but I'm interested in what others think. IMO you have to be both at the right table and a pretty good post-flop player to get away with raising 18%+ of your hands pre-flop. If your raising 18%+ of your hands you are raising a lot from positions other than the CO or BTN (and playing raised pots out of position) and/or raising junk from the CO and BTN. It takes post flop skills to play in both of these situations - post flop skills that take time to develope. The beginning SSNLer can tailer their stats to a certain profile, but without good post-flop play they won't do very well. My guess is that these people may be better served, by something like 18/12/3 until they get to be more complete players. It doesn't help that the 18/12/3 guy gets flamed for being a nit - even if he is winning the $.

Lucky

[Ratamahatta]

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A player with a standard deviation of 40 PTBB/100 needs about 250K hands before they can determine their "true" win rate to withing 1 PTBB (i.e., with a margin of error of 1 PTBB).

Lucky

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It's not 250k, it's 614656 hands exactly.

EDIT: if using C.I. of 95%

EDIT: ah, sorry, I thought you ment +/-1 PTBB and not +/-0.5 PTBB. You are correct sir! [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Jigsaws]

lol tiltaments. I hit-n-ran 30/60 Razz after losing a ton to a huge fish at 8/16.

Razz ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.50 SB)

Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___calls

4th Street - (4.83 SB)

Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (3.42 BB)

Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls

6th Street - (5.42 BB)

Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

River - (7.42 BB)

Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls

Total pot: (9.42 BB)

Results:

Total pot $565 | Rake $1

Hero: [4h 6s 3c 3d 2s 2d 7h] (Lo: 7,6,4,3,2)

[jonyy6788]

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I'm up 3 racks at CB ftw. Aj where r u ?

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stakes?

[shandyboy]

some good posts here recently, ive always seen myslef as a winning player, but for the first time ever, ive had 7 straight losing sessions... i moved down to NL100 2 days ago for confidence and lost 3 more buy ins! ha!

still bankrolled for NL200, but im staying at NL100 for a week or so.

the point im trying to make is, that there are evil swings to this game, this 10 buy in swing is really starting make me question my game. FWIW i was just about to move to NL400 last week before my toturous downswing.

its only now, that i consider i may not be the winning player i thought i was.