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#43
03-15-2007, 01:28 PM
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Re: Deep Stack: 22
[ QUOTE ]
wtf guys? why wld a sane villain ever push this turn withough the strt? [/ QUOTE ] i dnt knw I suppose it's possible he was tricky preflop with aces and felt he spiked his miracle card and soiled himself (discounting any 2 from hero's range - which is reasonable from his POV) 
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#45
03-15-2007, 01:35 PM
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Re: Deep Stack: 22
flop call is terrible
turn I call. 67 is a possibility but so is 33,44,55 and maybe even some other random crap. I see no where that we have a read that villain is uber solid and very likely leveling us. Think about our image. If we had AA would we be calling the flop raise or would we be repopping it? We are repping a middle pair on the flop or a stubborn Ax hand. At the end of the day I can't say what exact range villain has us on but in his mind AA is not a very likely holding of ours (given flop action). Either way I think our straight is still good so I call.
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#46
03-15-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: Deep Stack: 22
there are two hands we lose to. 67 and 62. Thats it. Lets assume that 62 never occurs.
That means the only hand we ever lose to is 67. Thats it. The only conceivable hand. I mean are u saying that he has 67 more than %50 of the time, thus making us long term losers? Thats the only hand he can ever have - and I personally dont think he can have this hand more than %5-%10 of the time given his position and those stats. Even then I think with those stats his line with this hand is really different. Im almost inclined to put him on the other 22 as a c/r on that flop w 22 facing a pfr from the button makes some sense. Then HE hits his straight and massively overplays hoping YOU have the aces. I actually belive this is more likely that 67. Folding here feels like a wasted opportunity.
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#48
03-15-2007, 02:49 PM
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Re: Deep Stack: 22
Grunching:
Ugh. Let's see: What we beat: 33, 44, 55, 43, 54, 53 What we lose to: 26, 67 Tie: A2 Villian's move in on the turn doesn't make sense if he puts us on a big pair and he has a set. If we have a big pair, we have a rough time calling once the ace hits and he shoves for 3x the pot. Similar argument for AK, AQ, etc. To me, there isn't a whole lot that would check-raise the flop and open shove the turn. My guess would be that he has 54 or something, but I tend toward not calling in this spot (because it's pretty deep) unless I have a better read on my opponent. Edit: Ok, read some of the other responses. I'm probably weak-tight. :P
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