Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.

[gerilege]

So we are fully prepared to get all our chips into this pot considering our stack. The only question(?) is whether we should contbet first or check.

I think it makes no difference in case he has QQ (less likely), TT, AK or AQs, we get all-in anyway either by bet/call or check/call or check/push or bet/push (we have 15-17% equity). The interesting part is when he has JJ,99,88,77. I think this range is quite reasonable without any reads. These pairs sum up to 21 hands from the 37 (21 + 3 QQ, 3TT, 8 AK, 2AQs). Against JJ we have 82 or 87% equity (depending on the Jc), against the lower pairs it is 86-91 (depending on the club).

I think there are no really possible drawing hands considering our hand and the texture of the flop, so I’m not afraid of getting bluffed out by a lesser hand, and we assumed that we will call anyway. So when we are ahead, we have at least 82%, but possibly 91%.

Now I would need an intelligent guess about the followings without any read, if possible.

A. We bet 700:

He has JJ (with or without a club). He folds x%, calls y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
He has 99,88 or 77. He folds x%, calls y%, pushes 100-x-y%.

B. We check.

He has JJ (with or without a club). He checks x%, bets y%, pushes 100-x-y%.
He has 99,88,77 (with or without a club). He checks x%, bets y%, pushes 100-x-y%.

[registrar]

I check because he wiill never call with lots of holdings that we are comfortably beating.

I'd also like to know what draws exactly everyone if referring to. Think about this: don't just consider that because we see two clubs and three broadway cards that this means we can't give a free card. If he's called pre-flop with clubs, then they must be connecting (because Ac has flopped). If they are connecting broadway clubs, we are toast anyway. He's not folding and we are a dog. It is not impossible that he has called with clubs that do not also offer him a straight draw but that would be very bad play with stacks this shallow against an UTG raiser.

How about straight draws? Well, again, he's not folding and he is often ahead.

I really don't see any benefit to betting this flop. What exactly are we protecting our hand from? He will not call with a worse hand.

If we check the flop, he might bet with a worse hand or make one stab at it with a better hand that we can overtake. If he has two pair, for example, I doubt he will bet twice at this board.

I think we're pretty much obliged to call off all our chips here, this shallow, but to bet all of our chips into a better hand which probably feels too vulnerable to get it all in itself, seems a little rash.

[Requin]

I like 450/call shove/shove non-broadway turn if he calls.

[Incongruity]

I don't understand all the certain pronouncements of "he will not call with a worse hand." Someone else says "there are no realistic draws."

I think those who say these things are using way too restrictive of a hand range for a tournament like this. Ax is a very possible hand, and many poor players would call a flop bet with something like A8. If you aren't including those hands in your range and EV, maybe with a discount, you are getting the wrong numbers. Also, if you aren't including flush draws with connectors, you are off as well.

I constantly see posts here listing starting ranges that are unrealistic, in my view.

[stjohnychan]

I'd have to agree w/ incongruity about the calling ranges. It's certainly the wrong play but in tourny's like this you see a ton of Ace-hugger's playing ace-rag in this situation, and you'll also see people calling preflop with pairs lower then 88.

[AAmucked]

Ax is the only hand that calls the flop that we're ahead of if we lead, and maybe a bad player who can't muck JJ. I think the best line here, if we're planning to felt this no matter what, is c/push the flop. You'll get value out of worse hands and we aren't worried about anyone drawing out here, and taking such a line might get worse hands like Ax to call when they might've folded to a turn push.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand all the certain pronouncements of "he will not call with a worse hand." Someone else says "there are no realistic draws."

I think those who say these things are using way too restrictive of a hand range for a tournament like this. Ax is a very possible hand, and many poor players would call a flop bet with something like A8. If you aren't including those hands in your range and EV, maybe with a discount, you are getting the wrong numbers. Also, if you aren't including flush draws with connectors, you are off as well.

I constantly see posts here listing starting ranges that are unrealistic, in my view.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point but which flush draws are we talking about here? Not AX [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Even idiots rarely play Kx [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. My point is that if it's a high club connector, we're not ahead or only marginally. We're not charging a draw on the flop. We're paying off a better hand and villain isn't going anywhere. As for ace rag hands, if they are calling, they will call on the turn.