Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to

[_Tank_]

For the newbies and semi-newbies:
OK...so the first few shows generally bring out a few "spotlight" contestants who the producers try to pimp. There are already a couple from the commercials that the preteens are gonna start to fawn over. But basically, these people are the worst bets in the beginning. They will be so above their market value in the opening lines its not even funny...see Ace from last year as an example. Opened at I believe 24 last year mostly because of his looks and OK voice.

I beieve the key to turning a profit from the beginning is the voices of the mid-pimped contestants. Last year that was Mandisa, Eliot (didnt really get pimped but he wowed in Hollywood), and of course Taylor. I picked up Taylor at 11 last year and held of for dear life. I believe I got Eliot at 4.

Be very careful judging people on their auditions, as the stage brings a whole new dimenstion to things and some people just cant hack it.

Hope to have some info on specific contestants after tonights show.

Happy watching! :-p

[GrannyMae]

remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

[_Tank_]

[ QUOTE ]
remember this as well tank.

it is likely the winner will come from someone NOT pimped at all, than pimped.

case(s) in point--> we did not hear fantasia or kelly clarkston until the finals.

the only reason we saw taylor's tryout last year was because the producers thought he would never advance far. he was considered a novelty that would likely not make it to top 12.

in the case of fantasia, they just plain hid her from us..

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey GM,

I dunno if I would use the word "likely." AI has become so huge that the fanbase has begun to act like sheep and just followed the herd. America likes something shoved down their throats, and the producers have done a much better job lately in showing us who we "should" vote for early on.

What the producers thought about taylor in the beginning is irrelevant. They gave him face time and even kind of played him up as an underdog, which the voting public ate up. Throw in a little talent and you have the winner.

Fact is, with the exception of Eliot, I believe most of, if not all, of the top 10 last year had their audition featured. I think the winner will likely come out of a featured audition, just not one of the "this is the next coming of Whitney Houston" type of things like how the judges fawned over Paris last season.

[private joker]

FWIW, in season 4, all the promos for the very first episode featured Carrie Underwood in that cute pink shirt singing her butt off. I watched the first round of auditions for her, saw her, and picked her to win. They rode that pony the whole way and it paid off. Too bad I don't bet on this. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Death Valley]

All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

[/ QUOTE ]

hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

[smbruin22]

i agree with everything said so far....

great value has been in good singers with nice personalities... and that indian kid (the boy) qualifies big-time (very likable and they'll get his look fixed up somewhat)

and against the slick, marginally talented like ace last year (although he did seem like a nice guy, but he basically was amazing on one song and got 3-1 odds to win very early)

[revots33]

So far I like the NY Giant football player's daughter and that's it.

Indian boy was alright but not nearly as good as Elliott last year singing Stevie Wonder.

Black guy with afro, 6'7" girl, Shakira wannabe, female auto-shop worker, navy guy, all have no chance IMO.

"Crack baby" did not sing as well as the football player daughter girl, but she's got a good backstory and seems likeable so maybe.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All I know is that this seasons winner isnt from Seattle of Minneapolis

[/ QUOTE ]

hiya rollaJ!!

i have not read the other threads yet, but i sure see the indian boy in top 12. also, if producers feel that it would make for good TV, they will manipulate it so the boy AND his sister are top 12 (maybe top 2).

it is, of course, too early. but these are the 2 that are twitching my idol radar.

of course, we have not seen the winner, as there have been no southern audition shows.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indian boy will make it through. Girl will be cut at the last possible time before she is presented to the voting public... I think it's when they split them into 3 different rooms or whatever. She'll be in a different room from the bro and he will get through and she will not.

Crackbaby is my fav voice so far. Expect her to go far (but won't win... too much of a Fantasia vibe?)

Jordin Sparks was good, but she won't make it too far because of the backlash that comes from having a privileged upbringing.

Shakira look-alike won't get past the semis. If she does, she will be the 1st one eliminated in the top 12.

There was one girl in Minny... I think her name was Sarah, that got through but flew under the radar. Watch out for her.

Army chick with the 9/11 reference actually has a decent shot, considering how piss-poor the talent pool is this year.

None of the guys have impressed me yet. The one with the afro had a good voice but I found his attitude annoying. He will drop out 7th-4th imo, unless he pulls a Mario.

I placed a prop bet on the winner being o23.5 at -120. The price will only get worse from there as the judges start saying things like "you're too young for this competition" and "you're 16... you can't sing Whitney Houston". The age of the winner has been trending upward, and they raised it in season 4 to 28 because America is out of talent. The only way a younger person can win is if it is a 16 y.o. who just became eligible for the show, but the producers seem very averse to promoting kids (not sure why... maybe the preteens who would buy the album just download it instead?)

I also think a prop on a female winner is the right way to go, but at -140 I'm holding off. The producers will artificially inject parity by putting through some sub-par guys, so there should be a window right at the start of the semis where a female winner is offered at close to even money.

Just my 0.02

[dieharder]

I think I would watch the army/navy people closely, they might get a lot more votes than their performance alone call for.