How much of this should I lay off????? Philly/Saints game.

[SamuelAdamsLager]

I take my friends action. Its great because he's loaded (we're both around 35 yrs old). We usually meet up and pay a couple hundred either way but he has lost everything the past week. Heres the info.. He's paying tomorrow

He's down $2650. He took Philly $950 to make $1757 money line.

I have about $1500 on BetUs.com. I was thinking about tossing $500 on Philly. (If they lose by 5 or under I win everything)

Thoughts?

[PsychoT]

If he is going bad, go for jugular. Book the whole thing.

[SamuelAdamsLager]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is going bad, go for jugular. Book the whole thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was once in this same situation before and he won and escaped and I haven't forgiven myself since. I'm definetly laying some.

[DeucesUp]

Unless bankroll considerations come into play, evaluate each bet on it's own merits. Only bet Philly if you think it's +EV.

If your friends bet amount is an especially big one for you then you can consider hedging some of your risk, but know that you are likely costing yourself money in the long run.

[Lori]

Be careful not to lay off huge amounts. Friendly bets don't always get paid in full when the numbers get big.

Lori

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he is going bad, go for jugular. Book the whole thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was once in this same situation before and he won and escaped and I haven't forgiven myself since. I'm definetly laying some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you are in the wrong business then? Undoubtedly if you’re booking bets you will be in the same spot again, and then again, and then again and again. Perhaps the intervals are spread out quite a bit but that shouldn’t matter.
Dumb luck just plays a factor on the short term day to day, week to week basis. In our gambling careers we are paid on “Expected Value”. The move +EV we get the more we make long term.
“If” I was booking bets I would look at it like this: Someone getting themselves out of the hole by chasing is great for business. It gives the illusion of invincibility overtime and the more invincible someone feels the harder they will end up crashing in the long run. People who keep betting and betting more and more to get even almost always end up falling hard at some point:
The $ amounts shouldn’t really determine the play unless this is outside of you BR.

[iggymcfly]

Just roll with it. You're getting a good price and I think the Saints' moneyline is +++EV at that number.

[SamuelAdamsLager]

[ QUOTE ]
Be careful not to lay off huge amounts. Friendly bets don't always get paid in full when the numbers get big.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you but its not like that.. He's been begging me to meet him all week so he can get this off his mind but ive been sick

[SamuelAdamsLager]

I just laid off $425 Philly +4.5..

[SamuelAdamsLager]

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !!!