Flop bottom set - slow down?

Tiburon · #1 12-29-2006, 04:00 AM

MP1 is 63/4/0.32 over 50 hands. SB is 20/9/1.42 over 375 hands. I wasn't sure what SB had, but I didn't think he could have me beat. I put MP1 on KQ from the start and stuck with that read to the end. Should I have gone into calldown mode anywhere?

Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 3-bets, Button folds, SB caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (20.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 28.5BB

Xhad · #2 12-29-2006, 04:08 AM

Based on numbers, I wouldn't expect either individual to have you beat. However, the probability that MP1 made a retarded pf limp with KK or QQ is probably greater than the probability that they both have KQ.

I would not slow down if they weren't both still betting on the turn (essentially removing draws from their ranges), but as it went down I think the river is a c/c.

Tiburon · #3 12-29-2006, 04:13 AM

I was planning a b/c on the river, but when SB folded, I was kind of reassured on my KQ read and decided to keep raising. If SB called, I would've just called also.

BigBadBabar · #4 12-29-2006, 04:26 AM

man, crazy hand. mp1 is very passive and he's going berserk. also wtf did sb have that he's capping with then folds? like jt of hearts? i think i might checkcall the river when sane and cap it when tilty/having a losing session, lol.

Clownfish · #5 12-29-2006, 04:42 AM

I would not put QQ out of his limping range. Clearly he is clueless and probably has the "I don't raise QQ because an ace or king can come on the flop" types.

Most important, I'd be very weary of the .32 agg. These guys only raise with the nuts. Even though our sample is small, .32 takes some work to get that low.

While I think he is capable of 3 betting KQ on the flop, this guy is not 3 betting the turn again when you two don't slow down and he is really not raising the river with KQ.

Xhad · #6 12-29-2006, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was planning a b/c on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, bet/calling blank rivers into turn aggressors is a mistake.

unterfish · #7 12-29-2006, 06:43 PM

Strange hand. Its possible that MP1 limped with KK or QQ because those guys "dont want to give away too much info about their hand".
I think I would c/c the river here, especially because you have two 3-betting/capping villains although the SB fold seems a little retarded. Maybe JTs indeed.

Tiburon · #8 12-30-2006, 12:01 AM

I guess the general consensus here is that c/c the river is the best play. SB fold was pretty strange, but MP1 showed KJ of spades and the set of threes held up.

Boggy Depot · #9 12-30-2006, 11:28 AM

"grunch"

I don't see anything wrong with you being aggressive throughout this hand. No one raised preflop so I doubt anyone has KK or QQ. The Jack on the turn shouldn't be a problem since it would be hard to believe that either villian bet or called like that on an ISSD.

This really looks like a top 2 pair board for villians unless one of them slow played JJ and hit his set on the turn. If that's the case then stay aggressive and take you lumps because that isn't going to happen very often. With no real straight threat (maybe AT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?) or flush threat stay aggressive.

Silly Question Time: What's the numbers at the start of the post mean and where do players get them? (e.g. 63/4/.32 over 50 hands) The last seems to be an aggression level, but is that with "1" as average?

uncleE · #10 12-30-2006, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Silly Question Time: What's the numbers at the start of the post mean and where do players get them? (e.g. 63/4/.32 over 50 hands)

[/ QUOTE ]

VP$IP/PFR/AF - all these stats (and many others) are obtained from pokertracker

VP$IP - Vol. Put $ In Pot - percentage of times player voluntarily put money into the pot pre-flop

PFR - preflop raise %

AF - aggression factor (postflop), calculated by (i think [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) (( total bets + total raises) / total calls)
Higher the AF, the more aggressive the player is. AF of less than 1 is passive, greater than about 2.5 is aggressive.