50NL, Time for a Big Bluff???

[Shoot59]

villain is 13/6/0 over 100 hands

Who pulls the trigger and pushes turn??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($29.65)
Hero ($50.95)
SB ($23.35)
BB ($110.30)
UTG ($46.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $2.5</font>, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB folds.

Flop: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $8</font>, Hero ????

All I could think was that he had aa/kk/qq and would fold to a push given his tight play so far. BTW I also felt like I played this entire hand poorly.

[kbinder]

I don't like it. What hand are you trying to represent?

[Dilznoofus]

He could represent anything that beats QQ, KK or AA given preflop action. Wouldn't you put in a raise here if you had Jx, TT or 22?

I think I like it, though I hardly ever actually try this myself.

edit: I don't think I'd push though. Making a smaller raise is more credible and allows you to fold if he decides you're full of it and pushes.

[Check_The_Nuts]

how does he have 0 aggression factor over 100 hands?

btw, I'm not a fan of a push. he has the jack here A LOT I think.

[Shoot59]

-Well, I'd like to represent the Jack.
-His aggression factor over 100 hands was the infinity sign (=0??)
-I don't really think he is the type to raise in the blinds after a bunch of limpers with AJ, KJ, or QJ.
-I don't think he would double barrel AK after the J pairs.
-I really think he has AA/KK/QQ (maybe JJ/TT).
-He'd have a hard time calling all-in without a J.
-I *almost* raised all in on the turn, but wussed out and folded, and kinda regret it.

[Frankyboy]

If he's AF is infinite, What about a KQ ? May be he's semi bluffing an oesd, i would raise here about 20$.

Raise preflop Btw

[Panthro]

Given the action and your reads, he's most likely got a scared overpair, and I'm not convinced he's folding to a raise...even if his turn bet is uber weak.

[Shoot59]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise preflop Btw

[/ QUOTE ]
I usually do, can't say why I didnt in this case, but it sure would have made villain's hand more defined.

[jjpregler]

[ QUOTE ]
He could represent anything that beats QQ, KK or AA given preflop action. Wouldn't you put in a raise here if you had Jx, TT or 22?

I think I like it, though I hardly ever actually try this myself.

edit: I don't think I'd push though. Making a smaller raise is more credible and allows you to fold if he decides you're full of it and pushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a problem with representing a J here. If he truly had a J, would he not have raised on the flop? A push here would look very suspect. When you bluff, you need to tell a story and the story has to be consistent. In this case the story won't be consistent. I like the idea of using a paired board to psuh someone off a hand, but not when that pair is top pair on the flop and you didn't bet like you had it there.

[Shoot59]

[ QUOTE ]
When you bluff, you need to tell a story and the story has to be consistent.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree 100% (prob why i folded)