Player Discussion

[slong]

[ QUOTE ]

JJ:
...
EV = 0.67*315 + 0.26*(540) + 0.07*(540) = $190.35


[/ QUOTE ]

I used the wrong second term in the equation but the answer is correct, should be:
EV = 0.67*(315) + 0.26*(-225) + 0.07*(540) = $190.35

[excession]

I'm a little confused - saying the AQs player should see a flop when is getting 2:1 on his money is one thing, but to somehow claim that AQs is a better hand here is so counter-intuitive it needs a lot stronger justification than you are showing.

The JJ player not only has position, he has the lead. If AQs player is known to be so weak tight as to not often bet out unless he hits (and the JJ player know this) then a bet from the AQs player may elicit a fold (assuming overcards to JJ on flop and no J). But 2/3 of the time AQs player won't hit, he'll check and lose the pot.

Otherwise with the lead the JJ player is likely going to play back at the AQs no matter what (or he sets the precedent that the lead can be stolen from him in a raised pot by an OOP bet).

Certainly just a Q hitting on the flop is unlikely to scare an aggro JJ player off. And when the flop comes Q, 8, 7 rainbow, AQs bets 2/3 pot and gets raised back what exactly is he going to do? The re-raise pre-flop from most players indicates AA, KK, QQ or sometimes JJ or AK. Even if he calls the raise, if turn is a blank and AQs guys slows down and faces another pot sized bet surely he has to lay down?

Similarly if the JJ player has the balls to raise into an ace flop - how can the AQs player think anything but 'uh oh' AK (or AA)?

As several posters have pointed out, if a Jack falls with either an A or Q (or better both) on the board the AQs player is in a whole heap of deep stack trouble.

AQs (at least without TP + nut flush draw) is simply a horrible trappy hand to be trying to play OOP into an aggressive pre-flop re-raiser unless you are really sure that he is full of it..now if this was a battle of the Button and the BB or a 3 handed table maybe I could see it -but I'm assuming this isn't the case and we are at either 6 max or full ring..

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I imagine the book will be written in a way that focuses on NL topics that take advantage of those strengths.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely the case. It's a very mathy book... and frankly I think even a lot of experienced NL players will benefit from it because they will

1. Understand more clearly the math behind why some of the (good) plays they make are right.

2. Understand where situations might arise where that math will tell you that this is an exception situation.

For instance, for those of you who have read the Bluffing section of Theory of Poker, how many of you instinctively bluffed roughly along these lines, but still learned something when you read the section?

David and I are definitely emphasizing insights that can be derived from math alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds interesting.

[Mark1808]

There are a lot of what ifs, as is the case with NL. The bottom line is that for typical play where the JJ makes a continuation bet on the flop AQ is getting 4-1 on his pre flop call for a 2-1 shot at hitting the flop, a good bet.

Now, do the what ifs reduce the strong plus EV? Well with a preflop raise to $150 if the AQ hits and the J also flops it might be pretty easy for AQ to get away from a lot of aggression, after all what hands raise to $150, get called and then go bisirk when an A, Q or J hits the flop. One pair no good, as they say.

The example does not set out to try and prove that AQ is better than JJ, it shows forward thinking about betting patterns, pot odds and making plus EV plays.

Also, please notice how much easier it is for everyone to raise and go all in on various situations on this board versus real play. I even originally posted that if JJ made a continuation bet and a Q flopped to my AQ I would raise, which after a pre flop raise of $150 is highly unlikely as I would fear AA, KK or maybe QQ. A solid player is not going to go crazy with JJ when over cards hits and the opponent shows strength or ultimately he will be a losing player.

[KaneKungFu123]

Mason,

You analysis is taking way too many liberties in declaring who will bet when, where and how much.

[slickpoppa]

Mason, the problem with your analysis is that you cannot assume that you are up against specifically JJ. As you said:

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Everyone:

The question isn't whether jacks is better than ace-queen suited. If you raise with ace-queen suited and get a good sized reraise, as long as the player is playing somewhat rationally you have to fold.

The question is regardless as to whether it is right or wrong to call the raise, if you do go ahead and call it, which hand would you now rather have. (Of course in reality if you hold the ace-queen you don't know that your opponent holds precisely jacks and vice-versa.)

Here's a hint. In almost all cases the ace-queen will check the flop and the player holding the jacks will bet probably somewhere between half the pot to the whole pot.

Best wishes,
Mason


[/ QUOTE ]

But in your analysis you assumed that you were up against JJ. Obviously the more relevant question, which you even stated yourself, is whether AQ or JJ is better against your opponents range of reraising hands (presumably something along the lines of AA-JJ, AK). So in order to really answer the question you would have to calculate the EV of AQs against JJ-AA, AK, and then compare that to the EV of JJ against that range and see which hand does better.

[psuasskicker]

he didn't actually say what you are saying he said. The part you quoted only says that he will fold every time he does not flop at least a pair if the AQ is unsuited. He then goes on to add in trickiness (the El D discussion) and suitedness.

I think he went way too general in there though. I mean, he basically said "it'll be offset by tricky play which will be offset by the fact that you're soooooooted and there will be other factors as well and my gut feel is your expectation remains positive."

But bottom line it comes down to the fact that he's basically advocating a weak tight strategy as being effective. "Optimal play with AQs when reraised is to call a flop bet oop if you flop a pair or big draw, and fold if you don't. Don't call a second bet, though. And hope that your opponents aren't good players."

The whole thing leaves me feeling a little ill...

- C -

[catlover]

Mason -- what if the Jacks respond to your strategy for AQ by potting the flop and turn every single time, no matter what -- but folding if raised unless they had improved?

I'm not claiming this is an optimal strategy for the jacks in all situations. I am claiming that it would crush your AQ strategy, and the way in which they do so illustrates that there is more work to be done here.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi catlover:

This was addressed in my analysis.

best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi slickpoppa:

I don't disagree, but that wasn't the question that was poised.

best wishes,
Mason