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#1
10-26-2006, 06:38 PM
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Percentages
I understand how to calculate proper pot odds, but my question is, when you're playing with an odds calculator, in terms of hands vs. hands, such as the one they have on bluffmagazine.com, how do you do this math yourself. I mean, i understand the numbers and pretty much have a lot of set ups memorized, but i want to understand how to actually calculate these percentages. Example, if you are playing heads up and you have pocket 8's vs. unsuited Ace King, you are roughly 55% pre flop favorite. My question is how do you figure out the 55%? How do you figure out this scenario with a 6 person table, a 9 person table, etc. What is the formula used to do this math myself, and try to calculate this myself, instead of memorizing the odds on these calculators. i want to know how to do this longhand. Can anyone help me out???
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#2
10-26-2006, 06:56 PM
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Re: Percentages
I would post this in the "Probability" forum here.... http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...rd=probability
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#3
10-26-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: Percentages
You're figuring you hand against one other. The other hands that may have been in the hand and folded are irrelevant (unless a card was exposed in which case the software probably asks for that).
The way they figure the odds (thanks to computers) is to just put every possible 5 card combination on the board and count how many times each hand wins. Knowing 4 cards there are 1,712,304 possible 5-card combinations of the remaining 48 cards.
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#4
10-27-2006, 08:24 PM
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Re: Percentages
George Rice is correct, but you can approximate these things pretty well in your head. Calculators and tables have made a lot of people lazy.
Pocket 8's against AK? If no A or K shows up on the flop, 88 will usually win (straights and flushes to unsuited hands are rare, and don't even mention quads on the board). About half the time, neither of two cards will appear on the board. A few of those times, there will be a third 8. So it won't be any surprise to learn that 88 wins about 55% of the time. The individual probabilities give you more detail than just knowing the probabilities of winning at showdown. Most of the time you don't get to showdown. 88 wins 55% of the time, but if one or more face cards shows up on the flop, it has to figure it's behind. If you fold it every time a face card and no eight is in the flop, you'll rarely win. But if you call raises in all those cases, you'll lose more the 45% of the time you lose than you win the 55% of the time you win.
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#5
10-27-2006, 11:58 PM
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Re: Percentages
here's how to think about it if you want to do it roughly...
AK has X% chance of hitting a pair, say 50% (this is just a guess.... basically six chances over 5 cards, but it isn't 30/48 like some think) 88 has Y% chance of hitting its set... say 20% 88 wins if AK doesn't hit or if it hits trips. so rough chances of AK winning = X-XY = 50% - 50%*20* = 40% like i said, those aren't the right #'s but the way to do it is correct...... for perfect #'s, you mostly have to familiriaze yourself with common situations...
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