Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 4 (Regular Edition) - Page 2

Lori · #11 10-01-2006, 08:32 AM

Do you think that the Chargers will be forced to throw the ball more this week, and are possibly untested in that area?

I loved this pick early on but have gradually become more suspicious that they may not be such an amazing play (I have already bet this early in the week, so it's not something I can easily reverse).
My fear is that the Chargers will throw 2-3 interceptions this week. I know that's always a worry, but I think it might be a specific worry this week.

I hope I'm wrong, I thought I'd post my concern in the thread tipping them the biggest, rather than start a new one, it's not a criticism of the tip.

Lori

dankhank · #12 10-01-2006, 08:56 AM

there is definitely some sharp money on baltimore this game. once again a 2+2 capper is butting heads with fezzik here. if you look at wagerline the betting public is split on the game. but we have slowly seen the line move toward baltimore, indicating big bettors. also i've noticed teaser books shading heavy towards baltimore.

logic i've heard is san diego hasn't proven anything in beating nfl's two worst teams. rivers is an untested qb (altho he has sharp chargers management betting on him). ravens are 3-0 and a home dog, so it is sort of a fundamentals play on them.

West · #13 10-01-2006, 09:32 AM

The thing about SD that would scare me this week is that, even though I am high on Philip Rivers, this is really his first test against a defense like the Ravens, on the road. His first road game was against Oakland, and SD dominated so much that I think he only had to throw 11 times. Then they got Tennessee at home. So I think this is quite a different situation for Rivers.

I didn't know that the Chiefs were gonna be missing Turley, that's a big heads up.

Performify · #14 10-01-2006, 10:23 AM

Combo response to everyone on San Diego:

I understand the concept, that the Ravens are 3-0 and are an underdog at home, etc. I understand that some of the traditional "rules" of capping lead people to look to them for value. But I think the last couple years have shown that any system that just followed "traditional rules" hasn't proven as a consistent winner. Information is available to the general betting public more frequently, parity in the NFL is as one-sided as its been in the last 10+ years, and I think a lot of these rules just don't apply carte blanche any more.

I really feel like anyone taking the Ravens hasn't seen all three of their games, and doesen't understand just how bad they are.

For me, there's always a lot of past perception in play in games like this. Many cappers look at things like the team's record, their scores in past games, their perception of their defense and offense, but they don't actually look at the games, at the breakdown of each game, didn't "watch film" on every single game every week.

I watch every game, every week. Most of them twice. DirecTV's NFL Shortcuts where they show each game in 30 minutes is fantastic.

Bill Simmons has an interesting point in his article this week: if you make a list of all the NFL teams, and rank them in terms of a power ranking, it often helps you see a disparity in teams that might not be aparent at first glance. I think you find out how bad the Ravens are. They're not the bottom of the league, by far, but they're quite far from the Chargers on a completely different level.

As I said in my original post, I think the Ravens are being tremendously overrated. When Charlie Frye is able to put up 300 passing yards on them last week (and two touchdowns) I have zero worry about the Chargers ability to throw the ball, and very little concern about Rivers being untested.

Its not like Rivers is coming in to this game last minute. The Chargers have been preparing him for this game since the season first started, and they've had two weeks to prepare him for this specific defense. And again, its not like Rivers is a rookie. He was picked fourth in the 2004 draft. Ben Roethlisberger was picked 11th in that same draft, seven picks behind Rivers. Rivers has seen and studied two seasons while backing up Brees, and now he's ready to take the reigns.

This game is probably his coming out party, and possibly the last time we get this sort of value on the Chargers again. After this dominanting win this week, everyone is going to have the Chargers at, or at least near the top of their list for postseason success this year.

On top of that, Baltimore's defense isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks (refernce giving up 300 yards passing to Cleveland). And their offense is much, much, much worse than everyone thinks (reference not being able to move the ball against Oakland, and scoring only one touchdown against the Browns in almost losing to them). And San Diego's defense is much, much better than everyone gives them credit for- they are always the top rush defense in the league and they've gotten better at pass defense. And I'd much rather face a McNair-led team who has to throw at us than have the Ravens in a situation where they can run first. While its certainly possible Rivers turns the ball over, its for certain that McNair will as well.

I'm very confident in my play this week.

But hey, I could always be wrong. I'm certainly not infalable in my handicapping.

But I will say, I like the Chargers play better than I've liked any NFL play this season... the only thing that's keeping me from puttin more units on it is some of the factors mentioned. At the five unit play to win ~5.5 units it is still a 10% more than a usual GotW with the line in our favor when I recommended the play.

West · #15 10-01-2006, 11:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I watch every game, every week. Most of them twice. DirecTV's NFL Shortcuts where they show each game in 30 minutes is fantastic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Beyond question (to my mind), this is the best way to have an edge. I don't have DirecTV myself, but I watch most Sundays at a friend's place who does, so I catch a lot of action from different games. But it's my goal to find a way to watch every game.

checkmate36 · #16 10-01-2006, 11:58 AM

I just put 2 units on SD+1 -106 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

34TheTruth34 · #17 10-01-2006, 12:45 PM

great post. thank you for calming me down a little. Like you and most others, I was just happy to hit this line under -3 earlier in the week. Now that I see the way the line has been moving, I'm starting to freak out.

Lori · #18 10-01-2006, 01:03 PM

Woohoo, we're getting this one live. As I've accidentally bet it for 2 units (Reviewed my bets, I bet it twice) and also as it could be one of my halftime plays, this pleases me.

Lori

Lori · #19 10-01-2006, 03:31 PM

Are they using a square ball or something, I might not survive to the end of this one at this rate.

Lori

Performify · #20 10-01-2006, 04:10 PM

Ugly early round.

Chargers leave six points on the field missing a field goal and fumbling on a second field goal attempt. I had the score predicted as Chargers 23, Ravens 13. Final was 13-16 Ravens: had the Chargers hit the two field goals we'd have seen 19-16 and a win. Ugly game on both sides of the ball.

San Fran likewise a complete blowout on the opposite side.

Summary of Picks:
# Chargers -2.5 +109 : 5 units to win 5.45 units LOSS -5 units
# 49ers +7 (-104) : 3.12 units to win 3 units LOSS -3.12 units
# 49ers to win +278 : .5 unit to win 1.39 units LOSS -.5 units
# Bengals -5.5 (-101) : 1.01 units to win 1 unit (pending)
# Atlanta -7 (-118) : 1.18 units to win 1 unit WIN +1 unit
# Teaser: Atlanta -1.5, Seattle +8.5: 4 units to win 4 units (open)

Results so far, 1-3 on picks -7.62 units.

Still alive on the four unit teaser and Bengals game still getting ready to start.