50 100 with str8 on flush/paired board

[PartyGirlUK]

Wow, wtf do you think he is checkraisign with? He clearly has a pretty good hand, good enough to be showdownable in his eyes, so he aint c/r bluffing, and he aint c/ring a worse hand for value. He might well not c/r a flush here.

[veganmav]

I am not worried about a worst hand checkraising for value.
I think if he did checkraise, that I will catch a bluff often enough to be good.
(a bluff in this case very well could be a made hand, but that he knows isn't good).

All I know, is that if he is good enough, then I should fold to a checkraise, and if he is better than good enough, he knows that i would fold to a checkraise.

I don't want to be outplayed on the river for 1 bet.in 17 bet pot.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not worried about a worst hand checkraising for value.
I think if he did checkraise, that I will catch a bluff often enough to be good.
(a bluff in this case very well could be a made hand, but that he knows isn't good).

All I know, is that if he is good enough, then I should fold to a checkraise, and if he is better than good enough, he knows that i would fold to a checkraise.

I don't want to be outplayed on the river for 1 bet.in 17 bet pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. There is no hand he's value-raising that is behind, but bet-folding in ginormous pots like these is asking to get outplayed, especially at that limit where there are players who are capable of seeing it and throwing in a last-ditch raise just to see if you'll fold.

Surf

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
surf, what about hands like AsJx AxJs, AsKx, AxKs? Those might be worth adding

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe AsKx and AsJx, but do you really expect a TAG to bet-call, bet-3bet this board after 3betting pf? If the guy had AsJx he'd have posted the hand here saying "I got popped on the flop and turn on a super-dangerous board, i whiffed my flush am I insane to want to fold the river?" We'd all say "oh don't worry just call metagame blah blah you're good 1 in 12" but really when you get popped twice on this board top pair doesn't look so hot anymore.

Unless there's something I don't know about where tags morph into mega-spew-lags once they hit 50/100 I don't think those hands are worth very serious consideration, especially b/c he's OOP so it can't even be a free SD 3bet.

Surf

[drywater]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey VM,

I'd check this river. Our opponent looks sane, and his most likely hands in no particular order are:
-AsKs
-AsJs
-KsJs
-QQ
-TT
-77
-AA
-AQ
-AT
-A7
-AK(overplayed, so needs to be discounted heavily)
th
We're now behind the flushes, QQ/TT/77/AA/AT, and ahead of A7, AQ, and overplayed AK. I think it's a pretty clear check, especially since we get c/r'd when behind most times.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes , you are right. The key word is "sane opponent".
I would discard A7,AK,AT, so the remaining candidates
are:

AA,QQ,TT,77, - 10 combos
AsKs,AsJs,KJs, -4 combos
AQo - 9 combinations. I would discount by 20-30% as only AQ with a spade would most of the time reraise the turn, not sure about other AQ hands.

So with candidates in the first row we loose 2 big bets.
Against second row hands we loose 1 bet (but probably they would bet the river.)
We gain a bet against AQ.
And nothing to KJ.
Dont need any calculation to be more inclined to a check. But maybe I am just whimpy.

Any opinions?

Good variance

[The Bryce]

What the hell. Check.