Update - Week of September 25th

[davebreal]

Anything we can do now to help?

Is it worthwhile to try to launch a massive phone/email "assault" on the senators near/before the lame duck session?

[Mr.K]

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One thing's for sure -- if we make it through the year without internet gambling language being enacted, we will owe a big thank you to Senators Warner and Specter.

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This is very true.

As for the other elements of your analysis, I think right on throughout. I am very curious about this effort to re-open the DHS Approps conference report, since that report has been signed and is technically not open to further amendments. I gather the Senate Democrats on the DHS Approps conference will withdraw their signatures on the conference report if this nonsense continues, and then we're in a stange spot.

But don't underestimate the power of leadership. Lets say that Frist and Hastert decide to play hardball and insert their pet language into the DHS Appropriations Conference Report. Lets further say that enough Senators withdraw their signatures from the DHS approps conference report after that happens to stop it from proceeding. Guess what Frist and Hastert would probably do? Yup, they'd create an new bill, H.R.xxxx, stick in the text of the DHS Appropriations conference report plus their pet provisions, and then put it on the floor for a vote. Now, I don't see how that would get blocked in the House, but such a move COULD draw a filibuster in the Senate... though it would take balls the size of church bells to filibuster a DHS package this close to elections (something Frist would be banking on when making such a power play).

The intrigue continues!

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

Also, from Roll Call today.

"Irritated at GOP leaders in both chambers who have often used the annual spending bills as vehicles for more controversial measures, House Appropriations Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) and Senate Appropriations Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said they are prepared to stay in session through the winter holidays to avoid passing a catch-all omnibus spending bill this year.

“Whether we work through the holidays or pass long-term continuing resolutions, we are committed to completing the FY 2007 appropriations process in an open and orderly manner, without resorting to an omnibus strategy,” the two chairmen wrote in a Monday letter to Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.).

Though the letter does not explicitly mention attempts by the leadership to attach unrelated measures to spending bills, Cochran acknowledged Tuesday that the letter was partially intended to let leaders know that appropriators are not happy with their bills being used to force other measures to the floor at the end of Congressional sessions."

Analysis: Attachment of non-germane riders is a "hot" issue right now and leadership is not being given the same Get Out of Jail Free card that it usually is. Most likely, this has to do with the GOP's poor approval rakings and lingering dissatisfaction among the rank-and-file with leadership, which is emerging in dramatic swaths this week. Whether this continues after the election -- assuming we make it that far -- will likely depend on the results of the election.

[LearnedfromTV]

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1.) Frist will not be a member of the Senate next year, he did not run for re-election this time, clearing the way for him to run for President.


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Thanks. I wondered about this and even looked at his website and saw that he had last run in 2000 and nothing about an election campaign, but I wasn't sure.

So if we get to next year, the landscape changes a ton, b/c right now the major threat is Frist, and he's a threat because of Leach and Iowa and the presidency.

It seems the optimstic view of the lame duck session is: If other Republican Senators have anti-Frist agendas, or just their own forward-looking agendas, he won't necessarily have the leverage to get his way (especially if his Presidential possibilities look slim).

The pessimistic view is that his only real motivation is the Presidency, and so he'll do whatever it takes to get Leach's support in Iowa, and that means internet gambling, although he'll try to avoid friction with other Republicans in the process. Is the biggest lame-duck session danger that he'll have a way to get the gambling bill passed in a similar backdoor way as he is attempting with these security bills, but this time w/o other Republicans (or Democrats) caring one way or the other?

Edit: Quick disclaimer that the things that may look like analysis in this post are more questions for Nate, K, Berge than analysis.

[Mr.K]

Yeah, this Republican vs Republican and Chairmen vs Leadership brawl is truly unprecedented as far as the last 5 or 6 years go. I think it is a sign of unrest in the GOP caucus and a feeling among some Senators and Members of Congress that the leadership on both sides has done a poor job of steering the agenda and managing the workflow.

Here's a cartoon from today's Roll Call that sums it all up nicely:

[Mr.K]

Also, looks like the lame duck will begin Nov. 13. Here's Roll Call reporting:

"Following the Nov. 7 balloting for House and Senate contests, both chambers are planning to convene the week of Nov. 13 to organize for the next Congress and to dispense with any remaining items on the legislative agenda."

P.S. I think its great that we have a whole forum of people now conversant in Roll Call, CongressDaily, CQ, holds, UC, conference reports, and so on. I reall am amazed at how quickly everyone has picked up the vocabulary and the sources that drive the agenda on Capitol Hill.

[TruePoker CEO]

We already owe it at this point. Senators Warner and Spector, in opposition to their Majority Leader, upheld the principle that the Senate operates by rules, which include fair consideration and voting on bills.

Who was behind that May, 2006 agreement, referenced by Senator Warner, to eliminate "out of scope" amendments to Conference Reports?

I don't know who that Masked Man was, but I'd like to thank him.

[BruinEric]

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"Irritated at GOP leaders in both chambers who have often used the annual spending bills as vehicles for more controversial measures, House Appropriations Chairman Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) and Senate Appropriations Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said they are prepared to stay in session through the winter holidays to avoid passing a catch-all omnibus spending bill this year.

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Nothing gets a Senator's attention like threatening his/her winter break!

We really owe some of this house rep angst over non-germane bills to some loud Republican constituents' spending-hawk backlash over recent pork-fests by many of their own. Talk radio mockery over Alaskan bridges, etc. didn't hurt either.

Plus, in a heated election time, a single issue bill keeps opponents votes very clearly definied. An opponent can't say "I would've voted for it if not for unpalatable stuff tagged on the bill."

So on that, the poker bill opponents have caught a little break because I don't see many elected reps taking a stand FOR poker. It's all going to have to be behind-the-scenes machinations.

[Mr.K]

Probably Tom Coburn (R-OK). Plus maybe Bob Byrd (D-WV). I'll look into it when I have time.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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That's awesome.