Interesting ... potential DoD bill clusterfu*k

[Uglyowl]

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I don't know if anyone with any realistic assessment of the situation can give you a %

Things are so fluid that it is near impossible to say.

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Agreed. I am convinced that the tradesports market is nonresponsive to key events, so those contracts are no longer a good gauge.

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Have there been key events? Seems to me no [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

It has been said no one really knows what is going on, so what movement should there be assuming an efficient market?

[Mr.K]

There have been key short-term events, pivot points, if you will. If there was news like this coming out regarding a major industry-changing regulation for telecom companies, you better believe their stock would rise as good news came out, and fall as bad news came out, in near real time. On the TS contract, there has been some minor movement, but it has not been accompanied by the volume, price change, or speed that would reflect an accurate trail of the gambling language. I guess what I mean is that there have been moments in recent weeks when a 60 ot 70 contract price was justified, at least in the very short run, and yet I don't think it has ever traded over 30 or 35. There have been moments where it traded in the teens in recent weeks when that price was clearly absurd. I don't feel like I'm explaining this well, but anyhow that's my view of it.

[Silent1]

Mr. K,

As things stand are you pessimistic or is it just that nobody really knows what the situation is concerning the bill (whether it is going to be attached, whether the wording has changed , etc.) ?

Damn Congress. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]