Calling Equity? late 20/180

[NoExtinction]

down to 14 players in PS 20/180, nearly every pot from T1600 to T200 has been either an uncontested allin push or a 1-caller coinflip, as usual.

Villain here has just suffered some bad luck. He has had a rush of cards, but has taken the worst of it after losing with AA, two hands later losing with AJ vs KQ, then tripling up from a tiny stack with JJ on the next hand. The very next hand after that (below) he pauses just for a few seconds before making his move again

SB and BB have been calling and pushing only with premium hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t11932)
SB (t17464)
BB (t17775)
UTG (t37500)
MP1 (t30723)
MP2 (t17523)
Villain (t8374)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to t8274</font>, Hero ??

[shaundeeb]

I fold if you call and lose you have 1.5BBs,

[NoExtinction]

True but with shorthanded tables and an M of 5-6 at t2000, might this not be a good chance to get in with a better hand and actually double? As opposed to pray that I get decent cards soon and/or manage to steal one hand per orbit until someone actually calls with a worse hand to double me in a better spot? BB is comin in 3 hands

If you "knew" you had better than 50/50 against the villain, would you still fold?

[Geoff Lightning]

Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands, since they know they have a small bullseye on their heads. I would be surprised if you were ahead in this instance, unless the villian was on tilt, but his showdowns seem to indicate otherwise.

[NoExtinction]

[ QUOTE ]
Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands, since they know they have a small bullseye on their heads. I would be surprised if you were ahead in this instance, unless the villian was on tilt, but his showdowns seem to indicate otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hear you but.. would his previous rush be any indication that his very next hand would be 'premium' as well? And if so, why? Realize his blinds are coming in 3 hands - at 2K

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Urgh, horrible. As always.

[PokerBarney]

I'd fold. It's just not quite good enough, and you'd either be a coin toss or a big dog. A big shaggy dog.

[patchdiaz]

I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

[peterchi]

There are better ways to get chips than calling here.

[CybrPunk]

I fold. You can accumulate more chips through well planned steals. There's no need to call here and risk going bust near the final table bubble. With 4 other players at the table that would be crippled by calling one of your pushes and losing you should have plenty of opportunities still.

I would rather push with 72o than call with K9o.