Easy bonus clearing with $540 EV at Mansion Keno (after Steelers bet)

[lotus guardian]

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lotus, can you do the HA of Keno with the 5x multiplier? Is it better or worse than Baccarat?

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The ha for keno now is about 3,115%. Considering it clears at 100% it's better than baccarat but has a higher variance (unless you bet $0.10 and $0.50 on the sidebet).

[kyleb]

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Sorry, i know we shouldn't wake sleeping dogs, but i have had a conversation with the online help chat thing. They send me the conversation by email so i will use it if needed:


MANSION Paul N:
RE: Hi there, i see in the T&C the following line: "MANSION reserves the right
to revoke or nullify promotion entitlements to players who appear to participate
in strategies intending to profit from promotional bonuses " Could you explain
that to me. is getting a profit not the whole idea behind a bonus ?

MANSION Paul N:
hello

Wacken:
hi

MANSION Paul N:
If the strategy is beyond the terms and conditions of the promotion

MANSION Paul N:
for example ' duplicate accounts'

Wacken:
ok, but playing my wagering requirement in a game that offers a positive EV for
the bonus after clearing the WR will not be a problem ?

MANSION Paul N:
ev?

Wacken:
Expected Value, you're in the gambling bussines ! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Wacken:
For example i have to wager 20.000 for the 1000$ bonus. I find a game with 2%
house advantage and thus lose 800 on average while wagering the 20k and have an
expected profit of 200

MANSION Paul N:
Different countries different terminology, just wanted to be sure. No problem
playing your wagering requirement in a game that offers a positive EV for the
bonus after clearing the WR.

Wacken:
Thank you

MANSION Paul N:
thank you for the chat

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I just saw this.

I hope you almost die in a car crash, [censored].

[alvaroaze]

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Could you explain this in more detail?
The bank pays 1.95, which has a 50% chance. It is possible to tie but I don't think thiss will reduce the expected loss very much. And with Keno the bonus clears at 100% and with Baccacaacacrat only 25%
How do you get the figure 1.06%?

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Banker wins 45.85% of time, ties occur 9.51% of the time.
So, betting $100, this happens:
0.458597 * $195 = $89.4264
0.095156 * $100 = $9.5156
So everytime you bet $100 you get $89.4264 + $9.5156 in return. $89.4264 + $9.5156 = $98.9420. So for each $100 you bet you lose $1.058, so the house has a ~1.06% advantage.

[PLOlover]

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So for each $100 you bet you lose $1.058, so the house has a ~1.06% advantage.

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I think it clears at 25% though, so WR is 4x higher.

[whataretard]

Speaking of wacken, I'll pay $200 for his private info such as name or email. Something that Mansion can identify him by. I may be an advantage player but I don't cheat by using autoclickers, etc. PM me if you have Wacken's info and want to make a buck off that cockholster's ass.

[alvaroaze]

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So for each $100 you bet you lose $1.058, so the house has a ~1.06% advantage.

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I think it clears at 25% though, so WR is 4x higher.

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Yes, he will have to play $44k, so the expected loss is $466, giving a $534 EV to the bonus.

[Dadswell]

since the other guy posted his chat log with mansion support I thought I'd do the same

MANSION Paul N
We are having some problems searching fro emails at the moment

MANSION Paul N
Its that time of the morning when our system backs up and sometimes it hangs for while

Dadswell
ahh ok

Dadswell
it's night here, so i guess you are over seas

MANSION Paul N
we are in Gibraltar

Dadswell
ahhh, do you know Anurang Dikshit?

MANSION Paul N
My boss does

Dadswell
well I will try again later, ENJOY!!!

[jds1201]

i talked to this guy who knows this guy who knows dikshit.

[Hielko]

Best option to clear the bonus is still Keno (I hate that I played a lot of baccarat to clear the WR: boring and stupid game).

EV of the 1000$ bonus when clearing it with baccarat:
House edge: 1,06%, WR: 80000
80000 * 0.0106 = 848
EV = 150$

EV of 1000$ bonus when cleaing it with the new keno:
House edge: 3,12%, WR: 20000
20000 * 0.0312 = 624
EV = 380$

[Folding Pete]

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EV of 1000$ bonus when cleaing it with the new keno:
House edge: 3,12%, WR: 20000
20000 * 0.0312 = 624
EV = 380$

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Is this still picking 5 numbers and then how much are you betting on the Keno itself and how much on the sidebet?