10/20 O/8 Hand

[MichaelOar]

Loose and wild game. Generally very aggro preflop--less so post-flop. The kill was on for this hand:

The kill and four other limp in. I limp on the button with:
AcAh6c5h.

SB folds and BB calls. Flop is:
9c8h4d

Three guys check. Aggro guy bets, I raise, BB cold calls, UTG calls and bettor calls. Turn is:
Kc

Checked to me. I bet. BB raises. Next guy reraises, next guy caps and it is 3 bets back to me. I . . .

Thanks,
Michael

[Habib Marwan]

Why are you bloating this pot? You have an overpair which is worthless, and the 4th low draw. Your flush will often be for half the pot. Let it go.

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you bloating this pot? You have an overpair which is worthless, and the 4th low draw. Your flush will often be for half the pot. Let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

When is he bloating the pot? Until the turn action I would have thought he was ahead around 50% of the time with many redraw outs if he was not. If there are any reasonable standards here, you would not expect anyone to hit this flop hard other than the kill-poster.

The turn action makes the hand a whole lot more interesting. There are only three scoop outs and eight more outs to a guaranteed 1/2 pot. There are a few other tainted outs for high and low which I will not even consider.

Now you are likely getting almost 7 to 1 pot odds... and you don't need that much to make this call +EV...

Am I wrong?

[Dire]

You're obviously not ahead after the turn, and there's a very good chance you're facing a set, so it just becomes a straight forward pot odds question.

Any ace and a nonpairing club will give you the hand. That's 2+7 = 9 outs for half the pot. If you're getting around 9:1 call, otherwise fold.

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
You're obviously not ahead after the turn, and there's a very good chance you're facing a set, so it just becomes a straight forward pot odds question.

Any ace and a nonpairing club will give you the hand. That's 2+7 = 9 outs for half the pot. If you're getting around 9:1 call, otherwise fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly not ahead on the turn...

My mistake on the pairing outs --- but you are also wrong. There is no made low yet. You have 3 outs to scoop, 6 outs to half the pot. You don't need 9 to 1, you don't even need 7 to 1, but it is very close... (and you have implied odds if you hit).

[wiseheart]

If you are even thinking of folding this hand,
I can see why your opponents are 3betting, because
they know they can raise to make you fold and thus
improve their outs.

[Dire]

Yeah, I made the mistake calculating everything as half. Let's see then. 3 scoop outs = 13.7:1. 6 half outs = 6.3:1. This is easier to solve as an equity problem. So you have .068 scoop equity and .137 half equity. That's a total equity of .068 + 0.5*.137 = .1365. .1365 is 6.32:1. Add some implied odds and nonnut gutshot juice and 6:1 sounds fair.

It looks like he's getting 20:3 on the turn, and there's a good chance at least one other player will also call the cap. So, assuming I didn't make a mistake in the math, it's an easy ( but high variance ) call.

[adanthar]

Preflop: hmm double suited, sure it's more variance and not fantastic aces, but since you've got the button why not pop it anyway?

Flop: You've got two backdoor draws to more or less 3/4 pot (two and a half if you count a 3 I guess), 2 outs to half the pot and the eighth billionth low...it's enough to peel, but why bother raising? You can't be cleaning up outs here, all the good lows still call.

Turn: Great card, now take your freebie. You've still got no equity edge here and nobody is folding.

You have to call the cap, but I don't like this hand at all.