Week 1 CFB Notions

[MyTurn2Raise]

sorry, I'm an egotist who made his own thread

[sfwusc]

I have SC -7 vs MSU for a unit.

what does everyone think of these games.

1. USC -8 vs. Arkansas
2. Florida Atl +33.5 vs Clemson
3. ND -7 vs. GT
4. UF -20 vs Southern Miss
5. Okalhoma -22 vs UAB
6. Cal +1.5 vs UT
7. Akron +17 vs PSU
8. UM -3 vs FSU
9. Miss -3 vs Memphis
10. Louisville -22 vs. Kentucky
11. Boston College -11 vs. Cent Mich
12. Pitt -3.5 vs UVA


-SFWUSC

[Caldarooni]

I think its terrible you laid 7 when 6.5 is widely available.

[pirateboy]

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what does everyone think of these games.

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I'll give quick opinions. Take them for what they're worth ($0.00 [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]).

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1. USC -8 vs. Arkansas

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With McFadden out, the -8 looks like a steal. USC's offense is unpredictable with so many new starters, but as every knows, they've recruited the best classes for 3-4 years now. I personally am staying away from this game this week, but I like USC -8 if I had to choose.

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2. Florida Atl +33.5 vs Clemson

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Clemson is better than 33' over FAU. If this were the 3rd game of the season, I'd jump Clemson in a heartbeat. However, with this being Proctor's first start, Clemson may not perform to 100% of their offensive capabilities. Proctor has the potential to be better than Whitehurst, so I think later in the season, Clemson will give us a ton of value. Still, on a bad day, Clemson could win by 40.

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3. ND -7 vs. GT

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A lot of power ratings say the line should be GT +5 or so. I don't agree. I think Reggie Ball is God-awful, and I don't think he has the talent to take advantage of a suspect pass D that ND has. I like ND -7 a ton.

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4. UF -20 vs Southern Miss

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S. Miss always seems to play major conference teams tough. This could just be my perception. I think S. Miss stays within 20, even comfortably (14). I don't think as highly of Urban Meyer as most.

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5. Okalhoma -22 vs UAB

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I think you can find this somewhere at -21, but don't quote me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I think this game is a lot like FAU/Clemson, but obv. UAB is quite better. UAB plays well against better opponents, but Hackney isn't around anymore. With Paul Thompson as a huge question mark at QB for OU, so I'm staying away all together until I see what he's made of.

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6. Cal +1.5 vs UT

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I don't bet UT games because I'm an alum and my passion would overtake my logic. With that being said, I'd stay away from UT until you see what kind of offense we have. I think people will be surprised at how improved the entire UT team will be.

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7. Akron +17 vs PSU

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This game has continued to confuse me, which makes me hesitate to put anything on it. Getsy's leadership could certainly help Akron's O to keep it close. PSU will have better talent almost everywhere, but with another new QB, it's questionable. If I had to pick a side, I like yours.

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8. UM -3 vs FSU

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Love it. The majority of people are taking FSU. I think Miami wins by 6 or 7, and wide right won't be in the story. Wright, IMO, is better than Weatherford, and Miami's D will be superior to FSU's. I like Moss better than Booker (but not Smith).

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9. Miss -3 vs Memphis

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Eh, this game is a toss-up. Memphis is probably better in raw talent, but Ole Miss has Schaeffer coming in. He only joined he team this month, so who knows how much of the offense he picked up. He was good enough to start at UT, so he should develop nicely. The road team has fared well the last 3-4 years.

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10. Louisville -22 vs. Kentucky

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I'd rather take Kentucky and the points here, but not betting this game. The line seems wayyy too perfect, and I think you can find value elsewhere. Rafael Little and QB Woodson will perform well this season. Louisville has an incredible attack, and Kentucky has no D. I'd rather take the over of almost whatever the O/U line is.

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11. Boston College -11 vs. Cent Mich

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I think BC is underrated going into this season, and I think they beat CMU pretty handily. No real analysis, sorry. :/

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12. Pitt -3.5 vs UVA

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I will be playing Pitt, as well, but not nearly as confident as last week. Palko will play well, and UVA really lacks an identity, IMO. However, Wannstadt was unimpressive, and Groh always seems to field a decent team.

[SoloAJ]

I'm a sucker for parlays. Mostly becuase it allows me to feel connected to 5 games for the bet of 1. Sure I'll lose my bet, but I feel connected to 5 for the price of 1 unit instead of going with 5 units....and then there's the allure of the almighty win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Obviously I do this for recreation and to lose 1 or 2 units a week....that said:

5 team Parlay: NOTE: (Pays 25:1)
BC -11.5 v CMich
BC/CMich o42
Temple/Buffalo u43
SoCar/MissSt o40
UTep +2.5 v SDSt


I might get frisky since it is week 1 and bet a few things single later...but I'm leaving for now.

How much of an EV hit do I take by playing these parlays mostly?

[Freerollin`]

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How much of an EV hit do I take by playing these parlays mostly?

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Like 97% or so. Probably more.

[Avatar of Wine]

It looks like Toledo's up to +8.5 @ ISU - being in the state (but an Iowa fan, caveat emptor), I can tell you that ISU's defense is nearly brand-new . . . and the experience they do return is primarily up the middle. Toledo has a solid receiving corps, as well as a variety of RBs that might be able to test the edge of the ISU defense - I like taking the 8.5 here, and would love it at 9. The o/u at 55 might be exploitable too - both teams could score 35 here pretty easily, ISU's offense is pretty sick. Obviously you hate to play a game hoping for exactly 35-28, but I like this matchup.

[sfwusc]

EV.... none to very little

Variance goes way higher.

If you bet on one game and took the winnings, then bet all on game two. Basicly repeating this for 5 total games...it would pay the same.

The variance is going to be a lot higher than betting one unit on each of the 5 games, but EV wise no difference.

-SFWUSC

[NajdorfDefense]

I like the Under 40.5 on FSU more and more with Moss and Moore out. Miami's O-line may be worse than last year's, although fSU lost a ton of D-talent.

Miami may have their alltime best D, hard to believe better than 1991 [22-0 Nat'l Championship] or some other years, but it's crazy good.

Naj

[SoloAJ]

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EV.... none to very little

Variance goes way higher.

If you bet on one game and took the winnings, then bet all on game two. Basicly repeating this for 5 total games...it would pay the same.

The variance is going to be a lot higher than betting one unit on each of the 5 games, but EV wise no difference.

-SFWUSC

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This is good news for me then. It fits very well. I can take the EV hit and higher variance as long as I'm locked in for less money overall. Sure I would fare better not parlaying..but I hate having a week where I go like 0-6...