JJ - turn decision

ipp147 · #1 08-27-2006, 09:24 AM

Villain is 29/6/0.75 over 40 odd hands. Hasn't done anything note worthy since being at the table

Turn decision here?

How often is this a set that wants a bet from my AK here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($547.40)
Hero ($476.90)
SB ($370)
BB ($483.09)
UTG ($375.95)
MP ($449.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $18, SB (poster) calls $16, 1 fold, UTG calls $14.

Flop: ($58) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $40, SB folds, UTG raises to $110, Hero calls $70.

Turn: ($278) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero

Sciolist · #2 08-27-2006, 10:01 AM

I doubt that the turn made any difference to whether you're ahead or behind. However, if you check here you are asking him to bet at you on the river and give you a potentially tricky decision.

Meanwhile, if you bet here he's probably going to go away with 99 or TT. He's going to call with all the hands that beat you - including now the nut flush draw. The only hand that'll call you that you beat here is the non-nut flush draw. So, both actions kind of suck.

Based on his normal lack of aggression, I'd err on the side of caution and check behind. If he checks the river, I'd value bet expecting to be called by 99 or TT, if he bets on the (non heart) river, I'd fold if he bet enough, call if it gave me good odds. If the river is a heart, I think we're down to about 2 hands we are ahead of here, so folding is the best plan should he bet, and I wouldn't value bet

luckychewy · #3 08-27-2006, 10:29 AM

fold flop, having not...check turn.

Fish Bot · #4 08-27-2006, 11:57 AM

Fold on flop.

oakley77 · #5 08-27-2006, 01:44 PM

It very well looks like UTG has made a move at the pot with either nothing, mid pair, top pair, or 99-TT. But with 99-TT I think they fire another shell on turn. It looks like you're good here, I fire 140 bucks on turn and re-evaluate on river whether to check behind if he checks or to fire a value shot.

wpr101 · #6 08-27-2006, 01:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold flop, having not...check turn.

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I would agree with this some of time. However, if we do this every time it because very exploitable.

Lucky · #7 08-27-2006, 02:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold flop, having not...check turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with this some of time. However, if we do this every time it because very exploitable.

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I dont think a 29/6/.75 is really going to exploit our weakensses. I like fold flop. As played, check turn. Looks like villain made flop c/r with monster, is so excited on turn he's about to wet himself, so he checks.

FGators · #8 08-27-2006, 03:48 PM

You don't think hes capable of raising the flop with other pocket pairs that didn't set. Folding the flop is a tough one here....I would normally check behind the turn.

fossil · #9 08-27-2006, 03:54 PM

40 hands does not make a profile but villian is suspect passive. It is not likely he would make a strong move without a made hand that he feels would hold up. This rules out draws and smaller pairs, therefore you are beat. Check it down and hope for the best.

Requin · #10 08-27-2006, 03:55 PM

Opponent dependant but I'd call the flop vs. an unknown. Check the turn.