Esoteric timepot question

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

Imagine a typical 100/200 B&M game. What is the -EV associated with having a collection pot when you're on your big blind?

[brandon]

a better question is what hands should you NOT play during a collection pot. A lot of this depends on how much the collection is and what level you are playing at. Less adjustments are called for in a 1/2 game where the collection pot is $60 and there is already $150 in the pot.

In a 40/80 game I play VERY tight in a time pots. I only play AKo+ from ep. In LP I will play AJs+ if the blinds are tight. Against a raise, I will muck JJ if the raiser is a tight timepot player.

[Hobbs.]

I've noticed that in some games people tend to play much tighter in time pots (even the fish) that it might be more profitable to loosen up as, in general, the blinds will be more inclined to fold preflop or on the flop and you can win a fair number of small pots.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I've noticed that in some games people tend to play much tighter in time pots (even the fish) that it might be more profitable to loosen up as, in general, the blinds will be more inclined to fold preflop or on the flop and you can win a fair number of small pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

The blinds of course should tighten up. Therefore, most players react by stealing more. So you're screwed twice over if you're the BB -- there are more steals attempted against your blind, and you're getting worse odds to play against a steal.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've noticed that in some games people tend to play much tighter in time pots (even the fish) that it might be more profitable to loosen up as, in general, the blinds will be more inclined to fold preflop or on the flop and you can win a fair number of small pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

The blinds of course should tighten up. Therefore, most players react by stealing more. So you're screwed twice over if you're the BB -- there are more steals attempted against your blind, and you're getting worse odds to play against a steal.

[/ QUOTE ]

The worst situation of all comes when you're in the big blind, and there's a couple people in LP who are new at the table and therefore not eligible to pay the time pot. So they're raising very very loosely, and you're [censored].

[The DaveR]

FWIW, I've never observed an AC game adjust at all to time pots, and once, hilariously, a player who was something like a 40 VPIP said something like, "Great, now I can open up my game again," after time was paid.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a typical 100/200 B&M game. What is the -EV associated with having a collection pot when you're on your big blind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. For the uninitiated, can you give the amount of the collection, the pot size needed, and the rules associated? I think I have a (kind of obvious maybe) approach but need to fill in the math.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a typical 100/200 B&M game. What is the -EV associated with having a collection pot when you're on your big blind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. For the uninitiated, can you give the amount of the collection, the pot size needed, and the rules associated? I think I have a (kind of obvious maybe) approach but need to fill in the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

The collection in the Bellagio $100/$200 game is $8 (or $7?) for each player dealt into the hand. So, that's $72 if the table is full up at 9 players. This amount is taken out of the hand on the first hand of the dealer down that sees a flop (regardless of pot size). Thus, if you steal the blinds and there is no flop seen, the collection moves on to the next hand. If you aren't dealt into the hand, you still pay the $8 for collection.

[disjunction]

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The collection in the Bellagio $100/$200 game is $8 (or $7?) for each player dealt into the hand. So, that's $72 if the table is full up at 9 players. This amount is taken out of the hand on the first hand of the dealer down that sees a flop (regardless of pot size). Thus, if you steal the blinds and there is no flop seen, the collection moves on to the next hand. If you aren't dealt into the hand, you still pay the $8 for collection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, if it had been pot-size dependent, I was going to suggest only considering hands that go to the turn.

I get a surprising answer, so there's a good chance I'll be editing this post in the next hour (edit: ok I think I found it).

There are more intense ways to do this, but it should be pretty simple to get a good approximation, no? Just act as if it weren't a time pot and figure out your "natural" EV. I think that would be pretty good, maybe you disagree.

You can go to Pokertracker and get % of flop seen from BB

(1) (full_ring && BB && sawflop)/(full_ring && BB).
(2) Multiply by W$WSF.
(3) Multiply by .36 BB (i.e, $72).

My guess (I'm away from PT right now) is you will get something like 35% for the first part, and with .4 as W$WSF so

.35*.36*.40*200 = $10

So surprisingly I have that you're only paying $5 on this hand. Actually less than $10. I say "less than", because you will compensate by folding more hands and lowering that 30% figure. (If this makes your opponents steal more, you exploit this by playing your normal game and then you still do better than $5).

For your overall EV, you just add that to your winrate from the BB. Obviously the sum must be less than $100 or we're hosed.

I'm not sure if the original question is just for the hand, or more of a question of "how much am I screwed?" If the latter, you need to look ahead to the next hand, if this hand didn't see a flop. You take the % of hands that didn't see a flop (20% ?), and multiply that by your additional loss from the SB, where you use:

VPIPxW$WSFx.20 (i'd subtract 3% from VPIP)

I'm going to get lazy for now and suggest that future hands roughly offset what you save off the $10 by playing tighter, so my final answer is $10.

Of course there are more thorough ways to do all of this, but they are unnecessary if there are no objections. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[disjunction]

Note: I messed up some of the math before I edited. My original answers were kind of weird, let's not relive it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hopefully it's correct now, but I timed out before I could edit a couple of spots. Anywhere in the above post where I type "$5", please substitute "$10".