2/4 QTo against 1 limper

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising is a terrible play here. It is highly unlikely that you have a better hand than the limper, nor will you force any better hand from the blinds (or possibly any hand at all) to fold in a game like the one you describe. By raising you are a building a bigger pot with a hand in which you are likely behind. Bad idea.

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LOL. you are funny.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising is a terrible play here. It is highly unlikely that you have a better hand than the limper, nor will you force any better hand from the blinds (or possibly any hand at all) to fold in a game like the one you describe. By raising you are a building a bigger pot with a hand in which you are likely behind. Bad idea.


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I can honestly say I think every sentence you wrote was wrong. The last one is correct but is irrelevant.

Haupt_234

[Donkster]

Stastically, the average hand is Q7. He plays half the hands, so that means he's playing any hand better than Q7. Sure, he could have a lot of connecter type hands or suited types of hands that you are ahead of, but even those hands are only a 3:2 underdog in most cases. He also could have a pair, any ace, or any king, all of which are ahead of you. Your hand is not much better than his range if it's better at all. I stand by my statement that raising here is a bad idea. I limp here and then after the Q hits I am going to bleed him as much as I can.

If someone has PokerStove in front of them (I'm at work), I'd love to see what sort of equity QT has against his range. I'm betting it's break even at best.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone has PokerStove in front of them (I'm at work), I'd love to see what sort of equity QT has against his range. I'm betting it's break even at best.


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So what your saying is you don't think you can beat a 50/3 passive limper, in position, with a hand that is likely better. When he is likely to make many postflop mistakes.

I agree that folding is correct in this situation if you don't play well postflop.

Haupt_234

[Donkster]

No, that's not what I said. I said I think you have to consider the likelihood that you don't have the best hand pre-flop.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Stastically, the average hand is Q7. He plays half the hands, so that means he's playing any hand better than Q7. Sure, he could have a lot of connecter type hands or suited types of hands that you are ahead of, but even those hands are only a 3:2 underdog in most cases. He also could have a pair, any ace, or any king, all of which are ahead of you. Your hand is not much better than his range if it's better at all. I stand by my statement that raising here is a bad idea. I limp here and then after the Q hits I am going to bleed him as much as I can.

If someone has PokerStove in front of them (I'm at work), I'd love to see what sort of equity QT has against his range. I'm betting it's break even at best.

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i think i would ask what sample size we have if i was really going to try to analyze this guy. also, different donks have different relative values that they assign to different hands. some love all suited hands, some will play any ace, some love connectors or pp's; the type of donk will vary. i am not arguing with you because i have certain thoughts on limping being the better play at a higher limit or with more "thinking" opponents, but we certainly don't need to assign a range to him based on how we ascertain hand value, as his system is likely different. it could be based on anything from his results-oriented past to what he sees on TV to what his lucky number may be. my point is, his 50% may not be the top spectrum of hand values and either way with position QTo fares well against his range and regardless is not a huge dog before the flop. also, any dead money from the blinds(which is my bigger issue with raising since they are often coming along REALLY bloating the pot)if they fold would give us some overlay. and we usually get a free card on the flop.

[SixForty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stastically, the average hand is Q7. He plays half the hands, so that means he's playing any hand better than Q7. Sure, he could have a lot of connecter type hands or suited types of hands that you are ahead of, but even those hands are only a 3:2 underdog in most cases. He also could have a pair, any ace, or any king, all of which are ahead of you. Your hand is not much better than his range if it's better at all. I stand by my statement that raising here is a bad idea. I limp here and then after the Q hits I am going to bleed him as much as I can.

If someone has PokerStove in front of them (I'm at work), I'd love to see what sort of equity QT has against his range. I'm betting it's break even at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think i would ask what sample size we have if i was really going to try to analyze this guy. also, different donks have different relative values that they assign to different hands. some love all suited hands, some will play any ace, some love connectors or pp's; the type of donk will vary. i am not arguing with you because i have certain thoughts on limping being the better play at a higher limit or with more "thinking" opponents, but we certainly don't need to assign a range to him based on how we ascertain hand value, as his system is likely different. it could be based on anything from his results-oriented past to what he sees on TV to what his lucky number may be. my point is, his 50% may not be the top spectrum of hand values and either way with position QTo fares well against his range and regardless is not a huge dog before the flop. also, any dead money from the blinds(which is my bigger issue with raising since they are often coming along REALLY bloating the pot)if they fold would give us some overlay. and we usually get a free card on the flop.

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Very well said!

[Donkster]

You do make a good point here about how to analyze his range. We've all seen guys who always play their birthdays or nonsense like that. I still think raising with this weak of a hand is a speculative move at best though, since any action you get after the flop is gonna be bad news with a pot that's suddenly gotten big.

[Hobbs.]

bet the river.

[arh1]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone has PokerStove in front of them (I'm at work), I'd love to see what sort of equity QT has against his range. I'm betting it's break even at best.

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Pokerstove says QTo has 48.5% equity against the top 50% of hands. Add in our good position, aggressive play, and weak opponent, and I'm still liking a raise here (especially if we have a good image at the table).