Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Realize that we are winning far more times than just when we hit our set, including some hands that may be better than us. I personally despise the stop and go, because it totally ignores flop texture. Suppose you decide to do it here. The flop comes A Q T, all one suit, which does not match either of your nines... to go all-in on the flop here is suicide!

[/ QUOTE ] A stop-and-go is bad in this particular case, but in general a flop of AQT can be a great flop for a stop-and-go. You want the flop to be scary to your opponents, and there are plenty of hands he could have here that would scare him. If you have 44 and your opponent has 88, a flop of AQT is about as good as it gets.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
You might want to run some numbers before you call this terrible. First of all, you are not calling off 1/4 of your stack, you are investing 400 more chips, which is either 400/1952 or 400/2152 depending on whether the stack sizes are before or after blinds are subtracted. My play works better in the latter case but I think I can make a case that it is still superior to a stop and go in the former.

Realize that we are winning far more times than just when we hit our set, including some hands that may be better than us. I personally despise the stop and go, because it totally ignores flop texture. Suppose you decide to do it here. The flop comes A Q T, all one suit, which does not match either of your nines... to go all-in on the flop here is suicide!

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless the other guy, hypothetically, might fold something like JJ without a card in that suit, or any hand with 1 low card in that suit which should technically not be folding to your stop and go. Then it's awesome. There a few hands which might fold incorrectly even on a flop like that.

[Quanah Parker]

allenincox-very well written post.
I think your advice hinges on the read of Villian, which is limited.
Your recommended line of play is edgy with M=10, but with very solid post flop play that you explained so well, might be a viable alternative. Boy, I'd hate to come outta this hand with a M of 5 tho.

With a slightly higher M, definitely a solid line of action.

As for me, I'd still go with the push here.

[allenciox]

I will run some numbers later on comparing my strategy with the push all-in preflop. I think both are better than folding, and I think clearly my strategy would be superior to a stop-n-go (seriously, on the A Q T flop the only hands that are completely missed from his original range is 99 and 88, even JJ and KK have straight draws).

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
I will run some numbers later on comparing my strategy with the push all-in preflop. I think both are better than folding, and I think clearly my strategy would be superior to a stop-n-go (seriously, on the A Q T flop the only hands that are completely missed from his original range is 99 and 88, even JJ and KK have straight draws).

[/ QUOTE ]

His original range is ridiculous and unbelievable. Even OP admitted that his original range was basically the tightest possible range he'd consider reasonable for Villain.

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
allenincox-very well written post.
I think your advice hinges on the read of Villian, which is limited.
Your recommended line of play is edgy with M=10, but with very solid post flop play that you explained so well, might be a viable alternative. Boy, I'd hate to come outta this hand with a M of 5 tho.

With a slightly higher M, definitely a solid line of action.

As for me, I'd still go with the push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess I'm nitpicking again, but his M isn't 10.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
allenincox-very well written post.
I think your advice hinges on the read of Villian, which is limited.
Your recommended line of play is edgy with M=10, but with very solid post flop play that you explained so well, might be a viable alternative. Boy, I'd hate to come outta this hand with a M of 5 tho.

With a slightly higher M, definitely a solid line of action.

As for me, I'd still go with the push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

100+200 = 300. 2152 / 300 = ~7. And that's assuming antes aren't in play yet. If they are, then M = ~4.

[AceLuby]

[ QUOTE ]
You might want to run some numbers before you call this terrible. First of all, you are not calling off 1/4 of your stack, you are investing 400 more chips, which is either 400/1952 or 400/2152 depending on whether the stack sizes are before or after blinds are subtracted. My play works better in the latter case but I think I can make a case that it is still superior to a stop and go in the former.

[/ QUOTE ]

600/2152 = 28%
400/1952 = 20%

Either case we have an M of ~10 here and we're going to put 3 of those in this pot PF leaving us w/ 7 BB's and 6.5 in the pot. Do you see why you have to push or fold now? We can't afford to play this for set value.

[ QUOTE ]

Realize that we are winning far more times than just when we hit our set, including some hands that may be better than us. I personally despise the stop and go, because it totally ignores flop texture. Suppose you decide to do it here. The flop comes A Q T, all one suit, which does not match either of your nines... to go all-in on the flop here is suicide!

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt we're getting higher pairs to fold post flop getting 2:1 after a call PF and if they hit anything on the flop w/ high unpaired cards then they will definitely call. I think we only get hands we beat to fold post flop, which allows our opponents to play perfectly.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I will run some numbers later on comparing my strategy with the push all-in preflop. I think both are better than folding, and I think clearly my strategy would be superior to a stop-n-go (seriously, on the A Q T flop the only hands that are completely missed from his original range is 99 and 88, even JJ and KK have straight draws).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a SnG is terrible here.

That being said, calling and betting the flop then folding to a raise is bad too.

You are going to have 1200 of your 2000 in the middle, and will be getting your stack in the middle by then and will be getting 4:1 on calling a push, so you can't fold and leave yourself just 4BB's.

I like your strategy if we are deeper, but calling off 20% of our stack with plans to fold some flops isn't good, as you are pissing away any FE your stack has left, and you can easily fold best hand too often.

This is a PF decision IMO.

Regards,
Woodguy

[DonT77]

[ QUOTE ]
pushing = folding; pushing OR folding > stop and go

Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost a textbook stop-n-go situation. I found this in my notes from a post Greg Raymer made a while back (sorry no link)-

"If you were holding 99 in the big blind, that would've probably been the time for a stop-and-go. As was already stated, the stop-and-go play is where you are in early position, call a bet/raise, and do so with the intention of betting all-in on the next betting round. You do this because you think you have the best hand, but you also think the opponent has a good chance of getting out on you. You know if you re-raise now they will be pot-stuck and call, but if you wait for the next card(s) to be dealt, they could have enough room to fold."

I also found this from Greg-

"I tend to use the stop-and-go in spots where these criteria are met. First, I'm pretty sure I have the best hand now. Second, if I reraise, there is very little chance the other guy will fold... Finally, even though I can't raise enough to get him out preflop, I can bet enough on the flop that he will likely fold if he misses, even if he misses holding two overcards."

Stated another way - if he has an overpair or his overcards connect on the flop you're likely getting stacked anyway, but if he has 2OCs and misses the flop you can keep him from seeing all 5 cards by pricing him out ATF. (And there's also that rare instance where you get him to fold a better hand when 2OCs to his pair hit the board.)