AA under pressure

[Isura]

Haven't been at the table for awhile, but villain seems tight/solid I guess. Doesn't seem to put a lot of $ into pots without the goods. Easy flop raise? Can I fold the turn, or just call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($194.25)
BB ($872.17)
UTG ($222.40)
MP ($102)
Hero ($198.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $8, MP folds.

Flop: ($23) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($63) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $40</font>, Hero calls $168.85 (All-In)

[RubbleRobble]

I like this. When I look at villains flop bet I see it as him just trying to steal the drivers seat from you (cause of threatening stack and scary board backed up by FE for him). I wouldn't be surprised if your hand is good the whole way. If you are looking for a reason that you can fold on the turn tho, what hand does he have that a K on the turn changes from a loser to a winner? If you are losing on the turn, you were prolly losing on the flop and it wasn't even close.

[cbloom]

I like just calling the flop, since raising lets him shove combo draws which are +EV against you.

The turn is tough, I suspect you're behind. He either has you beat or a combo draw here I guess, so the question is whether he keeps firing on the turn with something you beat.

[Morrek]

Hmmmmm I'd rather raise flop and take it from there. How many worse hands are calling this turn?

[Josh.]

nevermind, thought flop had 3 hearts

[tommo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmmmm I'd rather raise flop and take it from there. How many worse hands are calling this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would also rather raise the flop, villain could easily have 88-JJ here (as well as many draws).

[n1232]

Being the newb that I am...help me understand why raising the flop is so bad. I understand that chances are only better hands call the raise...but couldn't villan have JJ,QQ,KK and call the raise? I understand it is unlikely with no 3-bet preflop, but that doesnt mean its impossible.

[FishSticks]

Anyone just call the turn here and fold to a river push? If the villain is tight/solid I would be surprised if he 3-barreled his whole stack off on a busted draw OOP, and with a hand like TT he would be likely to check the river, hoping to induce a desperation bet from your busted draw, allowing you to check behind free and showdown.

[RubbleRobble]

n1232: raising flop is bad because the raise would be to in the area of 60USD. Villain covers (by a mile). This raise would open the door for him to shove with a worse hand that would force us to fold.

Morrek: 6h7h, pretty much any Ah6h, Ah7h, KhQh and several others that caro' law of loose wiring would allow

[snachos]

I like waiting until the turn fot the raise because you leave the oppenent 271.85-128.85 odds which is only a little worse than 2-1 making almost all draws unprofitable except for the strongest of draws(16 outs or greater). From my experience this bet looks like you are trying to push him out, which causes one of four outcomes if the villan is aware of odds: he folds his big draw, he folds a mediocre hand(99-JJ or other 1 pair hands), he views your play as a bluff and calls with his mediocre hand, he already has you crushed and calls. He could also call with his big draw but if he needs to improve to win then this play is -EV for him thus not bad for you over the long run.